China Economics Update China can’t shield Russia from sanctions The financial sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by the West put significant practical constraints on China’s dealings with Russia even where they don’t restrict them directly. There is little... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One chart to watch on Russia’s banking sector The spread of Russian interbank interest rates over the central bank’s policy rate – which was hiked aggressively on Monday – has widened pointing to some stress in the banking sector. But for now it... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in February as the Omicron outbreak subsided and containment measures were scaled back. But the threat of a continued rise in commodity prices as a result of the... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 21) Q4’s jump in GDP brought output closer to its pre-virus trend and we think it will get there next quarter already. But with tighter monetary policy looming on the horizon, growth is set to slow before... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holds up, but war in Ukraine a major risk February's manufacturing PMIs point to decent industrial growth last month and support our view that the impact from Omicron waves on EM industry will be limited. However, the surveys suggest that... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia macro update: sharp contraction incoming The ratcheting up of Western sanctions, alongside a tightening of financial conditions and the prospect of a banking crisis, mean that Russia’s economy is likely to experience a sharp contraction this... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Industry rebounds from Omicron, but risks ahead The latest manufacturing PMIs add further evidence that the hit to industrial activity from Omicron was limited and should be short-lived. Although supply chain issues and price pressures no longer... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.6 in February, from 57.6, is another sign that demand remains strong, with the small rise in supplier delivery times and modest decline in the prices paid... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Russia-Ukraine war risks renewed trade disruptions The latest trade data suggest that the Omicron wave caused limited disruption at the turn of the year. And, for now, it looks like the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on world trade will be small in... 1st March 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP rose by more than expected in the fourth quarter and the preliminary estimate suggests that, despite the Omicron outbreak, GDP rose further in January. This continued strength supports our view... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Worst may be over for goods shortages Goods supply shortages are now easing. Like the recent stabilisation in labour market slack, that improvement has, at least partly, been driven by a slowdown in demand, so it isn’t a sign that... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities China’s PMIs point to subdued demand China’s PMIs ticked up a little in February, but the big picture is that economic growth remains lacklustre in part owing to measures to contain COVID-19. The subdued demand picture confirms that the... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jan.) The muted rise in consumer credit in January suggests that the Omicron wave was still prompting households to exercise caution at the start of this year. With interest rates rising and the cost of... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in February suggests that the rebound in the sector picked up pace. But headwinds facing the industry and the wider economy mean this strength is unlikely... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
