Latin America Economics Update Why Argentina’s IMF deal is on shaky ground Argentina’s government reached a fresh IMF deal which, assuming it passes through Congress, will lead to a gradual shift towards more market-friendly policies. However, many of the economic... 8th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will labour shortages persist? Current labour shortages are not purely the result of short-term absenteeism related to the virus. Indeed, we estimate that around 80% of the shortfall can be explained by factors that will prove more... 8th March 2022 · 24 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the trade deficit to a record $89.7bn in January, from $82.0bn, means that net trade is on track to subtract close to 2%-pts from annualised first-quarter GDP growth, which we expect... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The goods trade balance moved back to a surplus of more than $2bn in January and, based on the recent broad gains in commodity prices, it is likely to hit close to $5bn this month. If that were... 8th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa posted decent GDP growth of 1.2% q/q in Q4, shrugging off the Omicron virus wave. While elevated commodity prices will support the economy over the coming months, growth is likely to slow... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics New higher inflation forecasts and lower GDP forecasts In response to the news that the US is considering banning imports of Russian oil, which means that commodity prices will probably be higher for longer, we have raised our CPI inflation forecast and... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2022 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress signal that China’s leadership is expecting much weaker growth this year than the relatively upbeat GDP growth target might... 7th March 2022 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update China unlikely to ramp up Russian energy imports The latest trade data show that China’s energy imports contracted in the first two months of the year in y/y terms. And even if the West were to cut off Russian energy imports altogether, we doubt... 7th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Trade volumes remained strong last month but are likely to soften over the coming quarters as China’s import-intensive construction sector cools further and rising inflation dampens demand for... 7th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Producers riding oil high? A win for SA public finances Oil prices have surged this week, but Africa’s main oil exporters – Nigeria and Angola – are unlikely to reap the full benefits due to persistent oil output problems and the mounting costs of fuel... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Surging commodity prices & Argentine subsidies The recent surge in commodity prices has given a boost to most Latin American currencies and it is generally seen as good news for the region. But not all economies will benefit. Chile's external... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia plunges into economic & financial turmoil Russia has fallen into chaos and we’ll get a clearer sense next week of the impact that sanctions are having on the economy. A dollar bond repayment by Gazprom on Monday will be a litmus test of the... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy headache in Thailand, Korea’s election Inflation has become a major policy headache for the Bank of Thailand after figures released today showed that the headline rate surged to a 14-year high in February. Given the weakness of the economy... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
