US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Annual money growth is slowing sharply and, given rapidly rising interest rates, wealth losses and QT, that slowdown has a lot further to run. The growth rate of bank loans is accelerating, however... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not... 31st May 2022 · 14 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) Indian GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY21/22) show that activity held up much better during the Omicron outbreak than during previous virus waves. The economy is well-placed for strong growth over 2022 as a... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) First-quarter GDP growth slowed to 3.1% annualised, from 6.6%, as the Omicron-related restrictions had more of an impact than previously thought. But the 0.7% m/m increase in monthly GDP in March... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack The monetary policy tide turns African central banks have turned up their hawkish noises over the past month. Policymakers in Nigeria and Kenya delivered their first interest rate hikes following pandemic-era cuts. In South Africa... 31st May 2022 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP in Q1 provides a solid base for year-on-year growth rates throughout 2022. But with surveys heading south, and signs of stagnation in the euro-zone in... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2022) Turkey’s economy performed better than expected in Q1, with GDP rising by 1.2% q/q, as the boost to net trade from the lira’s collapse late last year more than offset the blow to household spending... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The official PMIs add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound as containment measures were rolled back. That said, the recovery is likely to remain tepid amid weak external demand and... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Industrial Prod. & Retail Sales (Apr. 22) While employment recovered sharply in April and should soon reclaim its pre-pandemic level, the weakness in both goods production and goods consumption last month suggests that the economy’s Q2... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Colombia: no more business as usual The first round of Colombia’s presidential election has set up a close race between left-wing Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández in the second round vote on 19 th June. The vote was a major... 30th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Pakistan edges closer to IMF deal Talks between Pakistan and the IMF ended last week without agreement, but the subsequent decision by the government to cut back fuel subsidies has cleared one of the major hurdles towards a deal being... 30th May 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in May, but there were some encouraging signs that industrial sentiment has started to improve and that price... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (May) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for May was almost unchanged from April, well below its pre-Ukraine war level and consistent with economic activity stagnating in Q2. The survey also suggests that... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers trying to revive property sales China’s beleaguered property developers may soon see some respite both from their inability to borrow at reasonable rates and from sliding property sales. Last week, PBOC Governor said that the... 30th May 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We doubt near-term headwinds for the dollar will last The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most major currencies, a third successive weekly decline, and a drop of ~3% in the DXY index from its multi-year high earlier this month. In part... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Trade Monitor More signs that softer demand is weighing on trade After a growth spurt late last year, world trade flatlined in Q1. The Ukraine war and lockdowns in China raised concerns that renewed supply bottlenecks would choke up world trade. However... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
