Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (December 2024)

The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained deep in recessionary territory in December. While the survey has overstated the weakness in the economy this year, the outlook is quite poor and we think...

17th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs probably overstating extent of US outperformance

The latest batch of PMIs suggests that the US economy is growing strongly while Europe is stagnating or contracting. The US economy is no doubt growing more strongly than its advanced economy peers...

16th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Focus

Immigration curbs a key downside risk to DM growth

Immigration has probably added around 0.6%-pts to GDP growth per year on average across advanced economies since the pandemic. But tighter restrictions on immigration will weigh heavily on GDP growth...

16th December 2024 · 29 mins read

Key risks in 2025: What could go wrong (and right)?

Europe Economic Outlook

Low growth, low inflation, low rates

We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening...

16th December 2024 · 28 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Dec. 2024)

Despite the composite PMI staying at 50.5 in December, at face value it’s consistent with the 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q3 being followed by a 0.3%q/q contraction in Q4. Admittedly, we doubt the...

16th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December 2024)

December’s PMI survey for the euro-zone suggests that the economy is contracting and that price pressures remain largely under control.

16th December 2024 · 2 mins read

In the news

Treasury insists on no spring Budget despite fears of fiscal rule breach

16th December 2024 · Financial Times

China Rapid Response

China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2024)

China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, despite tailwinds from recent policy easing. Growth still looks on course to pick up this quarter, but the disappointing November data underscores...

16th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election

While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower...

13th December 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Muted price data cements 25bp cut

The tame November price data has soothed concerns about a resurgence in price pressures, giving the green light for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week's meeting.

13th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Asia Outlook: More rate cuts coming

We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as...

13th December 2024 · 28 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Why is the economy struggling so much?

The loss of economic momentum in the second half of the year isn't just due to the Budget but may also be due to the drag from high interest rates lasting longer and a growing restraint from weak...

13th December 2024 · 9 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Oct. 2024)

The upside surprises to both manufacturing and wholesale sales in October supports our view that the near-term economic outlook is now better than the Bank of Canada seems to think. It looks likely...

13th December 2024 · 2 mins read