Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack External strains building in North Africa The Gulf stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Oil output is likely to be raised more quickly, while higher energy prices will boost export revenues by around 10% of GDP this year, providing some... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) The European Commission business and consumer survey for March is consistent with our view that economic growth will be slower than most anticipate this year while inflation will overshoot... 30th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators unsurprisingly fell in most countries in March amid the fallout from the war in Ukraine and there were further large increases in price pressures on the back of... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery picks up but FX policies start to bite The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economy strengthened at the start of this year. But there are growing signs that the central bank’s draconian foreign exchange policies are leading to... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Feb. 2022) Retail sales dropped again in February, making it almost certain that consumer spending fell across Q1. Looking into Q2 though, private consumption is well set for a strong, booster-boosted rebound. 30th March 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Financial conditions as tight as after the Brexit vote The war in Ukraine has contributed to a tightening in financial conditions that will contribute to weaker GDP growth for the rest of this year and next year. Admittedly, a lot of the initial plunges... 29th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Long Run Update The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis The main long-run economic impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis will be to boost the workforce of countries where the migrants settle, partially offsetting the unfavourable demographics that many of... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia/Ukraine spillovers to hit CEE economies hard There are already clear signs of spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe from the war in Ukraine and we think that the overall hit to GDP growth in the region this year will amount to 1.0-1.5%-pts... 29th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Early signs of trade fallout from the war The latest available official data suggest that world trade held onto gains from Q4 in January, and timely indicators suggest that it may have edged up in February. It will be May before we have... 29th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron recedes, but other headwinds emerge Successful vaccination campaigns allowed governments to keep economies open during the recent Omicron waves, and our Mobility Trackers suggest that activity held up much better than we had originally... 29th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) Vietnam’s economy recorded solid growth in the first quarter of the year as the economy brushed off the impact of the Omicron wave, but while we expect the recovery to continue over the coming months... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Feb. 2022) The further rise in retail sales in February still leaves them a touch below their November peak but is consistent with our forecast of a solid rise in consumption in Q1. 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our forecasts for consumption growth With euro-zone inflation set to average around 6% this year, we expect aggregate real household incomes to fall by about 1.5%. The impact on consumption will be cushioned to some extent by fiscal... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
