Europe Economics Weekly Euro nears parity, energy effects erase German surplus The depreciation in the euro to its lowest level in almost two decades against the dollar this week in large part reflects investors’ view that the ECB will tighten less aggressively than the Fed. The... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Bond rollout intended to prevent infrastructure slump Policymakers are reportedly bringing forward some planned government bond issuance from next year to support infrastructure investment in the second half of 2022. This will help avert the slump in... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy will give the next PM a rough ride The next Prime Minister may walk into 10 Downing Street while the economy is in the middle of a recession and just a month before a rise in CPI inflation to over 10% in October marks the worse point... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policy tweaks should provide some relief to rupee New measures to reduce gold imports are unlikely to lead to a substantially narrower current account deficit and support the rupee, not least because the decision to discourage fuel exports will have... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Reshoring production bodes ill for profits The surge in firms’ capital spendings plan for the fiscal year that started in April to around a record high could be due to firms finally undertaking projects that have been held back by supply... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity holding up this year but will weaken in 2023 The latest data show that consumer spending is defying downbeat sentiment and rising interest rates by continuing to strengthen. Indeed, we have been arguing for some time that strong financial... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price falls, Saudi & UAE fiscal loosening, PMIs Oil prices have fallen over the past month as global recession fears have mounted but, while they are likely to decline further over the coming years, they will remain high by past standards. This... 7th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) The recent falls in commodity prices mean that, after soaring in May and probably improving again in June, the trade surplus will decline in the coming months. Nonetheless, as we expect commodity... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The further narrowing in the trade deficit in May reflects the strength of exports and implies that net trade provided a decent boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was close to 1%... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook More frontloading to come Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo... 7th July 2022 · 19 mins read
China Economics Update The limitations of China’s “new infrastructure” push Spending on high-tech “new infrastructure” should result in higher returns than adding more highways and railway lines. But it is not as effective a channel for cyclical policy stimulus. And a state... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s small rise in industrial production in Germany was not big enough to change our view that output in the sector is likely to have declined in the second quarter. And with the timelier surveys... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s small rise in industrial production in Germany was not big enough to change our view that output in the sector is likely to have declined in the second quarter. And with the timelier surveys... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures remain intense The latest data suggest that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain intense. Although core inflation edged down from 3.8% in May to 3.7% in June, this appeared to be down to... 6th July 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE current accounts now in worrying territory Surging global commodity prices have hit Central and Eastern European economies like a tsunami in recent months, causing a severe terms of trade shock and current account deficits to blow out. These... 6th July 2022 · 4 mins read
