Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of higher oil prices Higher oil prices will boost government revenues in the major EM energy producers, but many other EMs will face a fiscal cost via fuel subsidy programmes. While these costs are likely to be small in... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Flaring political risks a major threat in South Asia A constitutional crisis in Pakistan threatens to scupper its deal with the IMF, which would throw its already-precarious external situation into very dangerous territory. Meanwhile, political meltdown... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in March as high commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine began to take a toll on the sector. Given that fuel and gas prices have only climbed higher since... 4th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Challenges mounting for EM manufacturers The broad-based fall in March’s manufacturing PMIs shows that the war in Ukraine is starting to take its toll on EM industry, particularly in Emerging Europe, while China’s lockdown is hitting... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More shortages and higher inflation incoming The latest manufacturing PMIs suggested that the Ukraine war and Chinese lockdowns have so far had a fairly modest impact on output in the rest of world. However, they showed that firms expect the... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Long rates rising but still low, particularly in real terms The inversion of the 10y-2y Treasury yield spread this week led to predictable speculation that the Fed’s interest rate hikes would quickly push the US economy into recession. 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The unexpected decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.1 in March, from 58.6, still leaves it at a healthy level and, with other US manufacturing surveys strengthening last month. Nevertheless... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Peace talks, Russia’s gas solution, Fidesz set for victory Optimism about the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine came and went this week and, given the complexity of the issues at stake, it is likely to be some time yet before a breakthrough in talks is... 1st April 2022 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA wage talks, central banks turn hawkish, Tanzania-IMF Public sector wage negotiations will soon kick off in South Africa and there are reasons to think that officials may concede further ground to trade unions. Meanwhile, after central banks in South... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Services suffering Incoming data over recent days have been worse than generally expected and probably still don’t fully reflect the extent of current economic disruption in China. The week has ended with some positive... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Hold the press! SNB to join the hiking party this year The fact that we expect the ECB to hike interest rates sooner and faster than we previously anticipated shifts the goalposts for the SNB and, after a prolonged period of policy hibernation, brings... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 0.7% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in February was supported by a rebound in mining, which is likely to prove temporary. And surveys point to renewed weakness... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2022 could make Bank even more “forceful” The strong activity data released this week raise the odds of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates by a larger 50bp at its meeting later this month, particularly if the government loosens fiscal... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Real income hit and recession risk There are two reasons why we are not expecting the fall in real incomes triggered by the rise in a host of prices and taxes from today to lead to a recession. First, further rises in employment and... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The further rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in March to a record high provides further evidence that the economy has rebounded strongly from the Omicron-driven dip in activity at the end of... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
