Europe Economics Update Gas crisis heightens German recession risk Recent developments have further increased the chance that there is a complete end to Russian exports of gas to Germany. If this occurred, it would lead to a substantial fall in manufacturing output... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sovereign default more symbolic at this stage Russia’s government has now reportedly defaulted on its foreign-currency denominated debt for the first time since 1918, but this is a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional... 27th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The surprisingly robust 0.7% rise in durable goods orders last month was much better than some of the downbeat survey evidence had suggested and is consistent with business equipment investment growth... 27th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA corruption and inflation on display, Ghana’s troubles The president of South Africa and the ruling ANC are taking the heat as corruption accusations fly. With political bickering likely to grow, the focus on boosting the economy with much-needed reforms... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Governments collapse, Russia set to default Governments in Israel and Bulgaria collapsed this week which may delay support to households over the cost of living. The threat to Bulgaria’s economy is probably greater, as political instability... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Productivity in the pandemic It is still too early to assess the lasting impact of the pandemic on productivity in developed economies. But we remain optimistic that the legacy could be a positive one. 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating, with inflation now nearly double the target and wages increasing rapidly. However, we do not expect the MAS to respond by tightening... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) The renewed decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index for June provides further evidence that weaker demand is starting to affect manufacturing output. With inflation set to remain high and the... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s financial markets routed Risk-off sentiment and the sell-off in EM financial markets have hit the Middle East and North Africa hard. Having been the top regional performer earlier in the year, the MSCI Arabian Markets Index... 24th June 2022 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (May) The fall in retail sales in May suggests that the decline in households’ real incomes from surging inflation is starting to hit consumer spending a bit harder. Even so, consumer spending appears to be... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly A return to the streets, stimulus still being drip-fed Consumers have returned to the streets, with daily data showing that mobility is now largely back to normal. But it will be a while before they fully reopen their wallets. A lack of substantial policy... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears overdone The surge in interest rates, plunge in the stock market and weakness of consumer confidence have fuelled fears of an impending recession, but there is still little sign of that in the incoming... 23rd June 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest marked slowdown underway in DMs Having held up better than much of the data in recent months, the S&P Global PMIs have finally taken a considerable leg-down in the US and euro-zone. While the PMIs are still consistent with economic... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
