Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan: PM Khan stumped, emergency hike by SBP In Pakistan, the week began with a constitutional crisis and it will likely end with a new Prime Minister at the helm following the Supreme Court ruling on Thursday. Prime Minister Khan’s successors... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market revival delayed by outbreak Prior to the latest COVID-19 outbreak, China’s housing market had appeared on the cusp of a rebound. But movement restrictions and weaker consumer confidence have since caused home sales to slump... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound, Kuwait political turmoil, Tunisia election The Egyptian pound has remained relatively stable since last month’s devaluation, but we think policymakers need to move to a more flexible exchange rate and allow the currency to weaken further... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Enduring supply-chain woes risk stoking higher inflation Although China’s Omicron wave means that its economy is facing its sharpest slowdown since early 2020, so far it looks like disruptions to global supply chains will be milder than those experienced... 7th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early evidence of a hard hit to Russia’s economy Timely indicators suggest that Russian manufacturing contracted by around 20% y/y in March and that consumer spending fell by 10% y/y at the start of April. Russia’s economic downturn looks set to... 7th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales & German Industrial Production (Feb.) The small increases in euro-zone retail sales and German industrial production suggest that economic activity was growing at a modest pace in February. With much higher energy prices now weighing on... 7th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Mar.) India’s March PMIs show services as the bright spot last month as looser virus restrictions allowed activity to rebound. Unless COVID-19 cases pick up again, the outlook for the services sector... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update China COVID outbreak a large risk for the rest of Asia So far, the spill overs from the COVID outbreak in China to the rest of Asia look to have been relatively minor. But the possibility of major disruption to supply chains remains a large and growing... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) Although the nominal trade deficit was unchanged at $89.2bn in February specifically, the recent weakness of real exports suggests that net trade was a substantial drag on first-quarter GDP growth. 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb) The goods trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in February but, with commodity prices rising strongly since then and some of the jump in imports set to be reversed, it will rebound in March. 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) March’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag but further highlighted that the spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. Emerging... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s final euro-zone PMI surveys confirmed that output expectations fell sharply, with Germany experiencing the biggest drop. Meanwhile, price pressures remain intense across the currency union... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Feb. 22) Japanese wage growth strengthened in February and we think it will accelerate further over the coming months as overtime and bonus pay continue to recover. However, as the post-Omicron rebound wears... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys suggest that firms’ and consumers’ long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored, which the Bank could use to justify a slower tightening cycle... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
