US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation soared beyond even our above-consensus forecast in March and, given that it is likely to rise further over the coming months, we think the RBI will start hiking the... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: making sense of the latest surveys Depending on which activity survey you look at, Brazil’s economy either staged a rapid recovery in March or slowed. A comprehensive look at the latest figures suggests that the latter is more likely... 12th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Final HICP (March) and ZEW (April) Final inflation data for Germany in March and the first survey of economic sentiment for April underline the acute problems which the German economy now faces. Energy inflation and underlying price... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Turkey’s activity data for February point to a growing divergence between industry, which is being supported by a weak lira, and retail sales which continues to struggle in face of the surge in... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: major challenges await new PM The main challenge facing Shehbaz Sharif, who today replaced Imran Khan as prime minister of Pakistan, is stabilising the economy. The key to achieving this is a deal with the IMF. The price for any... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The disappointing 1.0% m/m fall in Mexico’s industrial production in February was partly because a temporary boost to mining output at the start of the year reversed course. But there were broader... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Feb.) The news that the economy was hardly growing at all in February suggests the economy had a little less momentum in Q1 than we had previously thought, and increases the risk of a contraction in GDP in... 11th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon unlikely to meet IMF demands Lebanon has secured a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but we think that it is highly unlikely that policymakers will push through the long list of reforms that are needed to unlock that financing... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political risks: Peruvian protests & Chile’s constitution The mass protests this week in Peru, triggered by rising inflation, are likely to lead to a further shift towards looser fiscal policy and a larger political risk premium on local financial assets... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Virus restrictions eased, Kenya’s fleeting budget Governments across Sub-Saharan Africa have scaled back COVID-19 restrictions in recent weeks and, despite low vaccination coverage, it seems the virus will be less disruptive to activity going forward... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed lurching from one extreme to the other The Fed minutes revealed that officials are in a hawkish mood and, after their brief flirtation with the flexible average inflation framework last year, they are now desperate to rapidly recalibrate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy sanctions ratchet up, Russia close to default? This week’s announcement that the EU will ban the import of Russian coal from mid-August will not have a major impact on Russian export revenues, but it marks a clear shift in the EU’s aim to target... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would Germany be hit by a gas embargo? A full embargo on Russian energy would force Germany to ration gas supplies to its most gas-intensive companies. This would have unpredictable knock-on effects which would cause a recession. While the... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Flodén leaves no room for ambiguity Riksbank policymaker Martin Flodén dialled up the hawkishness this week, arguing that monetary policy must respond to higher inflation. And with data due next week likely to show Swedish inflation in... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s policy tightening to hold back recovery Ghana’s economic recovery will remain sluggish over the next couple of years as policy is tightened in a bid to shore up the public finances and tackle high inflation. The risk of an imminent... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
