UK Data Response GDP (Q1 Final) The final Q1 GDP data leave households looking a bit more vulnerable to the big fall in real incomes that’s going to hit in Q2 and Q3. Although GDP and consumer spending won’t fall as far as real... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Jun.) The official PMIs point to a surprisingly rapid recovery in services activity this month after virus restrictions were mostly lifted. But this likely reflects a one-off boost from reopening and we... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (May 2022) The plunge in industrial output in May suggests that Japan’s recovery is disappointing yet again. The upshot is that it will take until the second half of the year for GDP to surpass its pre-virus... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest Russian data for May suggest that activity, having declined sharply after Western sanctions were imposed in March, has started to stabilise. Some sectors of manufacturing have benefited... 29th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
US Economics Update Easing shortages to push down core goods inflation There has been little sign that price pressures have eased yet, but the survey evidence suggests that supply shortages continue to improve. That reinforces our view that core goods inflation will fall... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Tight labour market pushing up wages The tight labour market is putting upward pressure on wages, with the Labour Force Survey showing a strong 1.0% m/m rise in average hourly earnings in May. While the annual rate of wage growth, at 3.9... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) While our models suggest that recession risks are still low, the Fed’s rapid policy tightening will trigger a marked slowdown in economic growth, which means that the risks are likely to build over... 29th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe showed broad-based declines in sentiment across the region and across sectors in June to levels not seen in a year. Economic... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) The decline in EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in June was not as bad as we had feared and paints a more upbeat picture than the PMIs published last week. Nevertheless, the survey also pointed to... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: on the mend Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2022) The strong rise in retail sales in May highlights the strength in the Australian economy and is consistent with our view that the RBA will continue to hike rates aggressively in the months ahead. 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (May 2022) The disappointing rise in retail sales in May poses downside risks to our upbeat forecasts for consumption growth in Q2. Asia Drop-In (30 th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack High inflation fuels strikes and protests High inflation seems to be causing growing unrest in the region, which threatens to be economically disruptive and raise fiscal concerns. Recent protests in Ecuador have hit its oil sector hard, while... 28th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Rebound in trade likely to prove short-lived Official data showed that world trade rose slightly in April and limited data for May suggest that it probably rose further as disruptions from lockdowns in China eased. But weaker global final demand... 28th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf a bright spot We think that rising oil production and high global energy prices will result in rapid GDP growth this year and next across the Gulf economies. Growth is likely to be well above consensus expectations... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
