US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The strong 0.9% rise in industrial production in March reflected a sharp rebound in autos production as well as another big increase in mining output. The US will not be immune to the global slowdown... 15th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tight labour market, French election in focus While there is very little spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market, this has not yet fed through to wage growth. The tight labour market and high inflation are likely to push wages up... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Floods hit SA recovery, Nigeria’s presidential race This week’s floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province are the latest in a series of hits to the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the news this week from Nigeria that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales in March was flattered by a price-related surge in the nominal value of gasoline sales, with the details suggesting that consumption fell in real terms. 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) The 4.2% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales in February was much better than we were expecting, as firms continued to boost production even though the blockade at the key Ambassador Bridge border... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for Pakistan and Sri Lanka? Recent tumultuous events in Pakistan and Sri Lanka should eventually pave the way for IMF deals in both countries, which over time may lead to the return of economic stability. However, this is by no... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly No respite for Sunak as Stagflation bites For an embattled Chancellor, the news from the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better. But despite the worrying signs for economic activity over the coming months, with CPI inflation now... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion Governments in Central and Eastern Europe stepped up support this week for firms and households against surging inflation, but we don't think they will prevent some economies from contracting in Q2... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine and the start of the US Fed’s hiking cycle have exposed macro imbalances in some frontier economies, but do not appear to have had a significant impact on capital flows into many of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak consumer confidence and renewed supply risks World GDP appears to have expanded at a below-trend pace in Q1 as high inflation limited real consumer spending and supply shortages and Omicron waves continued to disrupt activity. March’s broad... 14th April 2022 · 13 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Feb.) South Africa’s hard activity data for February were a stark contrast to the recent upbeat surveys as output dropped back in the mining, manufacturing and retail sectors. Electricity problems, fiscal... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Logistics under pressure but virus situation improving China’s economy is still reeling from the impact of COVID-19 restrictions. Although the hit remains most severe in services, disruption to trucking has added pressure to industrial supply chains in... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightening and strong economy will support SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy again at its meeting today. With growth set to remain strong and core inflation likely to stay elevated, we expect the MAS to... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Pakistan’s crisis We held a Drop-In on the political and economic problems facing Pakistan earlier today (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers some of the most common questions that we received. 13th April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Inflation will force the RBI’s hand The surge in global commodity prices will take a little gloss off India’s economic recovery this year but we still expect stronger GDP growth than the consensus. Higher commodity prices will also keep... 13th April 2022 · 19 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Feb. 2022) The sharp fall in machinery orders in February supports our view that business investment fell further in Q1 after a disappointing 2021. However, survey evidence and strong corporate profits point to... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
