Emerging Markets Economics Update A loss of momentum at year-end The small fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in December and the declines in headline PMIs for most countries suggest that EM industry lost some pace at the end of the year. We think... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Russia-Ukraine gas transit stop is not a game changer The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than... 2nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia December PMIs, Korea Trade, Singapore GDP The December PMIs for Asia were a mixed bag, but we continue to expect manufacturing activity and GDP growth in the region to remain subdued in the near term. With growth set to struggle and inflation... 2nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdown Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth slowed in November. That was partly driven by a slowdown in fiscal support, reflected in weaker services activity in particular. But industrial... 31st December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Dec. 2024) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy gained momentum in December, with faster growth in services and construction more than making up for slower growth in the manufacturing sector. Increased fiscal... 31st December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target... 23rd December 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct. 2024) The stronger-than-expected increase in GDP in October and upward revisions to the prior two months leaves fourth-quarter growth on track to accelerate to 2% annualised, raising the chance of the Bank... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2024 2nd Estimate) The downward revision to Q3 GDP from +0.1% q/q to 0.0% isn’t quite as bad as it looks and leaves scope for a lively debate with the family over the festive period about whether or not the economy is... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2025 Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and... 20th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong and three ‘cases’ for 2025 We think stronger GDP growth, falling inflation and gradual interest rate cuts will be the key themes that shape 2025. But recent economic data have raised the chances that high inflation combines... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: PBOC promises to restore growth are falling flat China's bond market is sending a message that China's policymakers are unwilling to hear: their policy interventions are not improving the long-run outlook. 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA Board, Aus. Budget Update, NZ GDP Although the Australian Treasurer’s new appointments to the RBA’s monetary policy committee were well received, the same cannot be said of his mid-year Budget Update. The government appears intent on... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
