Europe Economics Looming ECB rate hikes give SNB plenty to ponder We forecast the SNB to largely shadow ECB rate hikes over the next 18 months or so, albeit allowing the interest rate differential with the euro-zone to widen from 25bps at present to 50bps by end... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Are the demographic headwinds strengthening? A falling fertility rate and declining employment among retirement age workers pose downside risks to our long-term forecasts for Japan’s labour force and GDP growth. However, with the female... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Vote of confidence in the UK Prime Minister After winning tonight’s confidence vote, the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, may double down on Brexit and loosen fiscal policy further to try to boost his political standing. That may result in a... 6th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: near-term struggles, long-term outlook brighter Unfavourable shifts in commodity prices, the effects of drought and a slow rebound in the tourism sector will hold back Tanzania’s economy over the next couple of years. But while the near-term... 6th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s economy showing signs of life The solid 1.0% q/q rise in Brazil’s GDP in Q1, alongside the strength of the recent survey data, reinforce our view that the economy will fare better than most expect this year. However, we still... 6th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 50, 75…100 bp? Following its second 50 bp policy rate hike, the Bank of Canada hinted that it will consider an even larger move next month. With CPI inflation heading to 7.5% this month due to the renewed surge in... 3rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy prices keep on rising The 390,000 gain in payrolls employment last month demonstrates that the real economy is holding up well, although the further rise in energy prices will put households under even more pressure. 3rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining’s heydays are over Mining accounted for less than 10% of GDP last quarter for the first time since 2015 and with mining firms not responding to soaring commodity prices with higher investment, that decline has further... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rising prices won’t prevent solid rebound in Q2 The renewed drop in industrial production and the weakness in retail sales volumes in April has raised concerns that Japan’s recovery will continue to disappoint. However, with consumer prices rising... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy reinforces case for frontloading GDP data for Q1 released this week showed that the economy weathered the Omicron wave pretty well, and the timelier data suggest a solid performance so far in Q2. That said, there were also further... 3rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Is low household saving a serious threat? We doubt that the low saving rate represents a serious threat to the economy. But with slower employment growth likely to limit gains in income later this year, it adds to our sense that the recent... 2nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The April activity data for Russia released today show that the imposition of Western sanctions has caused a sharp fall in oil and gas production, a plunge in motor vehicles output and resulted in a... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Demand weakening but supply improving slightly The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial activity weakened a touch in May. But while the forward-looking components of the surveys imply that weaker demand will weigh on output in the... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel levy in South Africa, primary season in Nigeria The extension of a fuel levy cut in South Africa will help to contain fuel price pressures in the near-term, but the extra fiscal costs come at the same time that it looks like the government will... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 56.1 in May, from 55.4, was better than we had anticipated and suggests a continued easing of supply shortages is supporting activity. But we expect a... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
