Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi economy set for a strong couple of years Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery is likely to be one of the strongest in the emerging world over the next couple of years as oil output is ramped up and fiscal policy is loosened. We expect GDP growth... 9th June 2022 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update What impact would removal of Trump tariffs have? Cancelling all of the Trump tariffs on China would give a smaller direct boost to China’s export sector than many might think. More important would be the signal a unilateral rollback would give that... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s import demand to remain subdued Commodity import volumes revived a little in May, perhaps as virus-related restrictions started to ease. Although demand should pick up in tandem with activity as major cities re-open, we think that... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Bank of Korea to cut rates next year as headwinds mount The Bank of Korea (BoK) is almost certain to hike interest rates further this year, but with financial risks receding, economic growth likely to slow and inflation set to fall back to target by early... 9th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by... 9th June 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Activity holding up and price pressures strengthening Real economic growth is slowing rather than collapsing in the face of the twin drags of higher inflation and rising interest rates. The Chancellor’s latest fiscal handout will help support GDP in the... 8th June 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey, the lira and previous currency crises The Turkish lira has continued to slide and the current backdrop is eerily similar to that which preceded previous currency crises. Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira over the coming weeks are now... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP in Q1 was in large part down to the huge increase in Ireland, where the GDP data are notoriously unreliable. So the data aren’t as good as they look. And we still... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Why won’t the government help households? The view that policy support is best directed towards investment rather than consumption is deeply rooted in China. A few token consumer voucher schemes aside, this doesn’t seem to be changing. 8th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Soft landing for the economy but perhaps not for markets? While we forecast that the US economy will merely slow rather than enter a recession, we still expect twin sell-offs in stock and bond markets to resume, with value stocks and defensive sectors... 8th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (April) April’s increase in industrial output reversed only a fraction of the decline in March and shows that high energy prices, the Ukraine war and ongoing supply shortages are still having a major impact... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tailwinds fading, headwinds building With some important exceptions, including the German manufacturing sector, economic activity seems to have held up a little better than we had feared so far in Q2. We don’t think this will last. The... 7th June 2022 · 10 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The bigger than expected drop back in the trade deficit in April suggests that net trade will be a large boost to second-quarter GDP growth, with the risks to our forecast for growth of 4.8%... 7th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Elevated commodity prices were still doing little to lift the goods trade surplus at the start of the second quarter, but we expect it to widen in the coming months as goods imports from Asia drop... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) South Africa posted stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 1.9% q/q in Q1 and, while the economy is unlikely to sustain such a robust performance over the coming quarters, we have revised up our GDP... 7th June 2022 · 2 mins read
