China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2024) Activity growth slowed last month, falling short of expectations across the board. The service sector is still faring reasonably well and the fiscal support that’s already in the pipeline should help... 16th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry will continue to struggle A large part of the decline in euro-zone industry over recent years shown by the monthly data appears to be due to mismeasurement. Nevertheless, the sector is struggling with a loss of international... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus The post-election UK economic landscape The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain... 12th September 2024 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de... 12th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest hard data and survey indicators point to a slowdown in both manufacturing... 12th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Canada Economics Update What happened to the boost from Trans Mountain? There was little impact on GDP from the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion because the jump in exports was supported by a drawdown of inventories from elevated levels, rather than... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2024) The economy stagnated in July, but that doesn’t mean the UK is on the cusp of another recession and we still think the stickiness of inflation will keep the Bank on hold in September. 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to gauge recession risk in DMs Getting an early steer on whether an economy has entered recession requires a holistic assessment of a variety of indicators to see if multiple variables are flagging recession at the same time. In... 9th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly August jobs report just about enough for the Fed The data releases this week did not signal a clear winner in the 25bp versus 50bp cut debate, but the speech from Governor Christopher Waller nonetheless suggests that the small improvement in the... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the further fall in wage growth and headline inflation, all but guarantees... 6th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession possible, full recession unlikely We don’t think the lingering concerns about the health of the US economy mean that the chances of the UK economy slipping back into recession are much higher. Instead, the fading drag from higher... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
