Europe Economics Update

Will the “periphery” continue to outperform?

The outperformance of the peripheral economies since early 2022 is likely to continue over the next year, supported by high immigration, tourism growth and Next Generation EU funding. That said...

9th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start...

9th January 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Industrial Production (Nov.)

German industrial production picked up in November. But the level of output was still very low by past standards and with industry facing several structural headwinds we expect the sector to continue...

9th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Nov. 2024)

9th January 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What does 2025 hold in store for Brazil’s economy?

Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth is likely to come an end this year. Sovereign debt concerns will almost certainly rumble on, but further piecemeal austerity measures will probably prevent...

8th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (December 2024)

The EC survey is broadly consistent with euro-zone GDP stagnating in Q4. It also suggests that inflationary pressures remain sticky.

8th January 2025 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Rise in corporate bankruptcies not a big concern

The rise in corporate bankruptcies last year is not a huge concern, but it does add to the sense that firms are struggling more than the headline GDP and labour market data suggest. That in turn...

7th January 2025 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Services Index (Dec. 2024)

The rebound in the ISM services index in December will soothe concerns that the services sector is starting to run out of steam. Less positively, the surge in the prices paid index to a nearly two...

7th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up...

7th January 2025 · 1 min read

Event

EM Drop-In: Turkey’s 2025 – Will policymakers get the job done?

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Turkey’s shift back to macro orthodoxy made it a key EM success story last year, with inflation falling, the currency holding up and its financial markets delivering outsized

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Dec. 2024)

December’s batch of PMIs declined for the most part across the Gulf but we doubt that the strength of non-oil activity will be sustained in 2025, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Elsewhere...

6th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Vietnam to remain a regional outperformer in 2025

GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in the fourth quarter of 2024 and we expect another year of strong growth in 2025, with the main support coming from exports.

6th January 2025 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec. 2024)

Building on the November rebound, the further small rise in the ISM manufacturing index in December suggests the sector is starting the year in better shape after a tough 2024.

3rd January 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

What to expect from next week’s data

Next week will be a busy one for data releases in Europe. We think that the data will underline that core price pressures are continuing to ease gradually in the euro-zone, while economic growth...

3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs consistent with industrial weakness in December

The manufacturing PMIs overstated the weakness of industrial activity in 2024 but, at face value, their decline throughout most of the world in December suggests that the sector has entered 2025 on a...

2nd January 2025 · 2 mins read