Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing... 19th September 2024 · 20 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) After kicking off its loosening cycle with a 50bp cut, we suspect the Fed will now revert to 25bp moves until the fed funds target range reaches 3.00% to 3.25% in mid-2025. Looser monetary policy... 19th September 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown still has a lot further to run An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Activity Data (Jul. '24) South Africa’s economy is enduring a clear divergence in its economic recovery. Consumer-facing sectors appear to be performing better but industry, particularly mining, continues to struggle. We... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts on the horizon The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years... 18th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Public demand limiting RBA’s scope to cut rates Even though state and federal budgets point to a sharp slowdown in public demand in 2024/25, our analysis suggests that the public sector will keep providing a sizeable boost to GDP growth. And if we... 18th September 2024 · 12 mins read
US Economics Update Lower gasoline prices to cushion consumers Despite the US being a net oil exporter, the recent plunge in the oil price will be a tailwind for the economy, as lower gasoline prices support consumer confidence and real consumption. The Fed will... 17th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation and fiscal risks simmering We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters... 17th September 2024 · 22 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Aug. 2024) Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in August as the temporary disruptions to production from the previous month were reversed. Together with last month’s solid gain in control group retail sales... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Low saving rate not a major concern The continued decline in the saving rate, which is now close to a 16-year low, is not a major concern given the recent surge in household net wealth. Furthermore, as the saving rate is calculated from... 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2024) The 0.9% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes in July implies there are upside risks to the flash estimate that total GDP was unchanged at the start of the third quarter, although the negative tone... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
