Global Economics Update PMIs point to slower growth and inflation The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth slowed in advanced economies at the end of Q3, particularly in the euro-zone. Meanwhile, weaker activity seems to be weighing on services price pressures... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong) Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say... 23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Event Drop-in: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 – Where it’s going right (and wrong) 1728550800 Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme is passed its halfway point with clear evidence of major societal and cultural changes.
Global Economics Update What to expect as the loosening cycle really kicks off We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the likely pace and extent of interest rate cuts and their implications now that the US Fed has joined the party. (See a recording here.) This... 23rd September 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2024) The fall in September’s composite flash PMI is probably not a sign that the economy is on the cusp of another downturn, but instead is further evidence that real GDP growth has slowed towards a more... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected set of Polish activity data for August suggest that GDP growth softened over Q3. That said, we still maintain our forecast for relatively strong growth of 3.0% for this year... 23rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Flash Euro-zone PMIs (Sep. 2024) The big decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy is slowing sharply, that Germany is in recession and that France’s Olympics boost was just a blip. 23rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB’s paradox, floods in West Africa and Sahel The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) outlined a “goldilocks” scenario of stronger growth and lower inflation at its MPC meeting this week and, if supply side constraints continue to ease, it may feel... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opts for a 50 despite strong GDP growth The Fed’s decision to start its rate cutting cycle with a bang was not a big surprise after the seemingly coordinated media articles late last week warning that the 25bp vs 50bp debate was closer than... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary... 20th September 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fed easing, Q4 Outlook, Sensex surge The start of the Fed's easing cycle won't automatically cause the RBI to follow suit; we still think it will keep rates on hold in its next meeting in October. But the right domestic conditions will... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus... 19th September 2024 · 19 mins read
