Chief Economist's Note How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured world For good reason, much of the attention around what another Donald Trump presidency would mean for the US economy has centred on his proposals to jack up tariffs and clamp down on immigration. If he... 30th September 2024
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP & National Accounts (Q2 2024) Q2 GDP growth of 0.5% q/q was a bit weaker than the previous estimate of 0.6% q/q, but the ONS also confirmed today that due to revisions to previous years’ data the economy is now 2.9% bigger than... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Sep. 2024) While the official PMIs held up okay in September, the Caixin PMIs dropped quite sharply which suggests that the economy lost some momentum this month. The stimulus package announced last week thus... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug. 24) 30th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Revisions clear up some nagging doubts Leading up to this week’s annual revisions to the national accounts, we were attuned of the risk that the expenditure-based real GDP measure might be revised lower to match up with the income-based... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Will this stimulus be enough to revive the economy? 1727856000 Economists from our China and Markets teams held a special briefing to assess the recent flurry of stimulus announcements from Beijing.
China Economic Outlook Pivot to stimulus lowers immediate risks A pivot towards fiscal and monetary stimulus should support China’s growth in the near-term. But the economy continues to be propped up by investment, still elevated levels of construction, and the... 27th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to favour a 50bp cut The upside surprise to GDP growth in July does not change the big picture that quarterly growth is likely to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada anticipated, while a host of other data releases... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The implications of more public investment A big increase in public investment in the Budget on 30th October would push up demand before any rise in supply is felt. That could mean over the next year or two inflation is a bit higher than... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October ECB cut not a done deal A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. But while the odds of a cut have risen, it is far from a done deal. Much will... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul.) Although the rise in GDP in July was stronger than expected, the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in August suggests that the momentum was short lived and puts third-quarter growth on track to... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling... 27th September 2024 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Aug) As we calculated based on the earlier price data releases, the core PCE deflator increased by a muted 0.13% m/m in August, with the headline deflator up by 0.09% m/m. Admittedly, although the monthly... 27th September 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Make in India: 10 years on Though there have been pockets of success, PM Modi's flagship "Make in India" policy initiative - launched 10 years ago this week - has done little to improve the global competitiveness of India's... 27th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update New fiscal package being lined up China’s finance ministry appears to be lining up a fiscal support package to deliver on the Politburo’s pledge of additional support for the economy. If a report by Reuters is correct, the package... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
