Global Economy Gets Tailwind From Falling Energy Prices “It’s difficult to overstate how important this is in terms of the macroeconomic outlook for Europe,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics in London. 12th March 2023 · Wall Street Journal
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Growth in industrial production picked up in January, supporting our view that Q4 will have marked the trough for q/q growth. Nevertheless, the outlook for the industrial sector over the coming months... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slimming the size of the possible recession With the hit to real activity from high inflation having been and gone and mostly absorbed by government handouts and a real terms reduction in households’ pandemic savings, we no longer think there... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the National People’s Congress China’s annual legislative session offers reasons for optimism and caution. On the one hand, conservative economic targets and policy settings suggest that officials are prioritising quality over... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal shortages remain a key downside risk Efforts to improve the stability of coal supply have had some success over the past 18 months but shortages remain a key downside risk to the economic outlook. The upcoming summer months could be a... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m rise in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) will raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession in 2023 and will increase calls for the Chancellor to splash the... 10th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA won’t hit pause just yet RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s statement that the Board was closer to a pause was interpreted by financial markets as a marginally dovish signal. However, with inflation yet to fall in earnest and the... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024 We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree numerical guidance, but we suspect that they... 9th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2023 Preview We expect the Spring Budget on 15 th March to contain some giveaways confined to 2023/24. But a downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) medium-term GDP growth forecasts will prevent... 8th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2022) Revised figures show that the euro-zone economy flatlined in Q4 last year and that domestic demand dropped sharply. There have been some positive signs in the past couple of months, but policy... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech growth to disappoint as eurozone recession hits The very high household saving rate in Czechia and the sharp fall in inflation we expect there this year means there is scope for consumer spending to recover over the coming quarters. But we think... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) The big rebound in German industrial output in January suggests that industry may continue to hold up well in the face of the energy crisis. However, with the renewed drop in retail sales pointing to... 8th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The economic and market consequences of the Spring Budget 1678894200 What will UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt deliver in his Spring Budget?
