Global Economics Chart Pack Credit growth slowing even before banking strains Even before SVB’s collapse prompted a reassessment of the health of the global banking system, bank credit conditions were already tightening in response to higher interest rates. We have written many... 17th March 2023 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will shrug off market jitters Amid signs of trouble in the global banking system, markets believe that the RBA is done tightening and that rate cuts will be on the cards soon. However, with domestic demand showing few signs of... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2022) With the New Zealand economy in for more pain on the heels of the Q4 GDP decline, we expect the RBNZ to start cutting rates towards the end of the year. 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) GDP figures released today for Sri Lanka highlight the scale of the economic damage caused by last year’s political crisis and debt default. While there are some tentative signs that the worst may be... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) & Nigeria CPI (Feb.) January’s hard activity figures out of South Africa came in stronger than expected, reducing the chances of a technical recession. But momentum remains extremely weak. Elsewhere, the rise in inflation... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) The rise in industrial production in January was entirely due to strong growth in Germany and Ireland, with all other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Activity data for the first two months were broadly as expected, showing a jump in consumer spending coupled with modest gains in investment and industrial output. High-frequency data suggest that... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rebound in mortgage rates hits housing demand Stronger-than-expected economic data in January led to a rebound in market interest rate expectations and a jump in mortgage rates from 6.2% at the start of February to 6.8% in March. That drove... 14th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The manufacturing sector made a stellar start to 2023, but the surveys suggest growth will soon slow and the banking sector problems in the US could weigh on manufacturing demand over the rest of the... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexico’s industrial sector stagnated in January as a slump in construction output offset solid increases in output in other subsectors. Early evidence suggests that activity held up well last month... 13th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Economy on brink of mild recession The economy is on the brink of a mild recession but with underlying inflation still accelerating, we expect new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to end Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting in April. 13th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Jan.) The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
