Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) Another rise in motor vehicle manufacturing sales failed to offset weakness elsewhere in December, with overall sales volumes edging down. The rebound in the S&P Manufacturing PMI and manufacturing... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) & Nigeria CPI (Jan.) December’s hard activity figures out of South Africa point to a mild contraction in GDP in Q4 and indicate that weakness in the economy is spreading beyond industrial sectors. Elsewhere, the pick-up... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property will be part of the post-COVID revival The roots of the crisis in China’s property sector lie in the worsening long-term outlook for demand. This has not improved. But sales started the year so beaten down that a short-run cyclical... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Output & Trade Balance (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone industrial production and imports in December further highlights the weakening in the economy at the end of last year. We expect the economy to enter a recession this year as the... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Focus Unlocking India's demographic potential If it isn't already, India will soon be the world’s most populous nation. But this doesn’t mean that policymakers can simply wait for the economic benefits to arrive. The key to unlocking India’s... 15th February 2023 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to slow sharply The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now... 15th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Japan Chart Pack YCC still set to end with Ueda at the helm The government formally nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan Governor at yesterday’s Diet session. Since the initial announcement of his candidature last Friday, analysts and investors have... 15th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the strength of employment The surge in employment in January highlights that some sectors are still recovering strongly and raises the prospect that the economy could avoid recession, although we still judge that a modest one... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore tightens fiscal policy despite economic slowdown While Singapore’s government has framed today’s budget as being designed to help poorer households cope with a rise in the cost of living, the main macro impact is a tightening of fiscal policy at a... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) Confirmation that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q4 does not alter our view that the region is now falling into recession. That said, we think the labour market will continue to hold up... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2022) The falls in GDP in Central and Eastern Europe shown in the Q4 figures probably mark the worst of the regional downturn, but we still think that activity will (at best) only stagnate over the first... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4, avoiding a technical recession after the contraction in Q3. With business investment slowing even quicker than we anticipated and a lower savings rate leaving... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4, final estimate) The economy slowed sharply in Q4 and we expect growth to remain tepid and well below-trend over the coming months as multi-decade high interest rates and weak global demand weigh on prospects. 13th February 2023 · 3 mins read
