Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 2023) The widening of the trade surplus in recent months belies the negligible contribution that net exports will have made to Q1 GDP. Indeed, we think the weakness in import values last quarter primary... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Apr.) The latest survey data add to wider evidence that while China’s recovery remains robust, it is losing some momentum. In particular, the manufacturing PMIs fell below 50, suggesting that the reopening... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 23) 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strength in exports unlikely to last The surge in exports from Latin America’s major economies in March suggests that the upside risks to our GDP growth and currency forecasts are building. But with advanced economies poised to fall into... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Household spending squeeze to continue Policy tightening over the past year has pushed up euro-zone households’ interest costs substantially and is a key explanation for household consumption falling. With interest costs set to rise a lot... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Apr. 2023) April’s PMIs for the region showed that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf states started Q2 on a strong footing. What’s more, there were tentative signs that price pressures may... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q1 GDP data Available data for Q1 suggest that the global economy had a better start to the year than previously feared. That seems to have reflected the post zero-COVID rebound in China and its effects, a boost... 3rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Apr.) India’s manufacturing and services PMI readings rose in April but are at odds with the hard activity data that point to more subdued domestic and external demand. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) While retail sales values rose at a decent pace in March, we estimate that sales volumes fell the most since 2021’s lockdowns last quarter and that weakness has further to run. That in turn should... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month was due to a jump in inventories, while other indicators pointed to further weakness in the sector. The country’s severe energy crisis continued... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP growth turned positive in Q1 after four consecutive quarters of decline. The economy rebounded more rapidly than anticipated, largely thanks to the swift return of foreign visitors as... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2023) & Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The 0.1% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q1 means that the economy avoided remaining in a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, but we think that growth will still disappoint consensus... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade and Inflation (Apr.) A simple average of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose slightly in April but this was almost entirely driven by a large jump in Thailand’s headline index to a record high. Weak global demand and... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The ongoing rebound in house prices is living on borrowed time. With affordability extremely stretched and the economy poised for a sharp downturn, we’re sticking to our forecast that house prices... 2nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
