Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP in no rush to cut, Indonesia’s dodgy GDP data Headline inflation in the Philippines fell sharply last month, but with the core rate still elevated and worries about the inflationary impact of El Niño rising, the central bank (BSP) is in no rush... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject... 3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a soft 2023, but set to be GCC top performer in 2024 We have collated a range of low-profile activity data for the UAE that point to strong activity in the non-oil economy. But this won’t be enough to offset the impact of oil production cuts. Prospects... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Jul. 23) July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in many other emerging markets but still pointing to robust non-oil activity. Elsewhere... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) The final euro-zone PMIs confirmed that economic conditions deteriorated in July, with the Composite index consistent with GDP declining slightly. We continue to expect the euro-zone economy to fall... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jun. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s weakness due to further slide in trend growth We estimate that China’s trend rate of growth has slowed from 5.0% in 2019 to 3.0% now, based on our China Activity Proxy. This is a steeper deceleration than in the years leading up to the emergence... 2nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Renewed weakness in EM industry driven by China The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month low in July was mainly driven by a renewed drop in China, but the surveys generally remained downbeat across most EMs last month. We think EM... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show no hint of a rebound in industry yet The latest PMIs suggest that the decline in global manufacturing activity has further to run. At least weak activity is weighing on price pressures, which should lead to further falls in core goods... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
