US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market resilient to banking sector turmoil The US housing market has been largely unaffected by the banking sector turmoil. Indeed, buyer sentiment rose to an 11-month high in April and activity appears to have bottomed out. Tighter credit... 10th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The surprisingly strong 1.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the economy fared a bit better than we’d expected in Q1. The risks to our GDP growth forecast for... 10th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal consolidation is put on the backburner The 2023/24 Budget unveiled yesterday by Treasurer Jim Chalmers was something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the modest spending measures proposed by the government will not break the bank, thanks... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy contracts in Q1, set for a weak 2023 Flash GDP figures showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted in Q1 on the back of OPEC+-agreed oil output cuts, but growth in the non-oil economy remained strong. The “voluntary” oil production... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed pause may not last for long The April employment report showed that while jobs growth remains solid enough, it is still trending lower and the surveys suggest activity growth is slowing too. With ongoing concerns over regional... 5th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Core inflation too high for ECB to stop hiking April’s inflation data provided little sign that underlying price pressures are easing. Admittedly, the core rate edged down from 5.7% y/y in March to 5.6%, which was the first decline in 15 months... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s election race, CNB hawks, Hungary’s reforms Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of economic weakness, rates to peak at 3.75% Hard data and surveys released this week suggests to us that although the euro-zone economy may again avoid a contraction in Q2, it will remain very weak. Otherwise, we have lowered our forecast for... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strength of PMIs unlikely to support another rate hike The PMI surveys for April released this week suggest that India’s economy started Q2 on a strong footing. But they are at odds with several other indicators that point to an unspectacular near-term... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Event EM Asia Drop-In: Thailand’s election and near to long-term economic risks 1683792000 The Thai economy is poised for recovery this year, but before that the country faces a contentious general election on 14th May which could be a trigger for fresh political unrest.
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Economic growth in Indonesia was unchanged at 5.0% y/y in the first quarter of the year, but we think growth will slow over coming months as tight monetary policy and weaker exports drag on activity. 5th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth has yet to peak Pay hikes under Australia's private-sector enterprise bargaining agreements have gained traction. Although annualised wage growth will climb higher over the course of the year, we still expect a... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing lacking momentum The manufacturing PMIs for April suggest that industrial activity softened in most EMs last month and that external demand generally remained weak. The one crumb of comfort is that price pressures... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Will the BoE take rates above 4.5%? 1683813600 The market has finally come round to our long-standing view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5%, with the Bank of England to likely to deliver another 25 basis point hike when it meets on 11th&
