US Chart Pack Resilience of activity won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of the April activity data and apparent stabilisation in housing have raised hopes that a recession may yet be avoided this year. That said, forward-looking indicators suggest that the... 23rd May 2023 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show strong service sector activity driving growth May’s PMIs suggest that activity in advanced economies has continued to hold up well amid a strong rebound in the service sector. Meanwhile, weak demand for manufactured goods is weighing heavily on... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack A temporary rebound in growth The latest activity figures suggest that most Latin American economies held up better than we’d thought in the first few months of 2023. Mexico and Colombia made surprisingly strong starts to the year... 23rd May 2023 · 14 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s PMIs suggest that economic growth is being supported by the services sector while manufacturing activity continues to contract. The strength in services activity may be supporting persistent... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Strong auto sector rebound probably largely in the past The rebound in global auto production and sales over the past year has been partly responsible for the better-than-expected activity data over the past several months. And with auto sales in most... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Which states could benefit from “friend-shoring”? In a fracturing global economy, India stands out as a prime location for the “friend-shoring” of manufacturing supply chains out of China. The manufacturing powerhouses of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Resilient services sector keeping growth and price pressures strong The euro-zone Composite PMI fell slightly in May but is still consistent at face value with the economy expanding at a rapid pace in Q2. The survey also suggests that price pressures and the labour... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) Industrial production and retail sales data for April for Poland were generally on the weak side and suggest that the economy lacked momentum at the start of Q2. We think activity will soon bottom out... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s flash PMI readings were the strongest they’d been in a while and point to gains in both industrial production and services spending, supporting our assessment that the economy continued to grow... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Policymakers can breathe easier on inflation The past month has brought some encouraging news on the inflation front. Consumer price inflation dropped sharply in April to an 18-month low, keeping the headline rate comfortably within the RBI’s 2... 22nd May 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external demand to weigh on exports National GDP data released so far suggest that euro-zone exports rose in Q1. However we suspect they will be more subdued in the coming quarters as a result of weak global growth. 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s ‘mutual death’, external imbalances easing Ecuador’s political crisis escalated this week after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly to dodge an imminent impeachment vote. Whoever wins the fresh elections, the next couple... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly It’s Erdogan’s show, Poland’s giveaways, GDP wrap-up Sunday's presidential election result in Turkey has left Erdogan in pole position to win in the second round run-off on 28th May. If Erdogan does win, all eyes will focus on Turkey’s imbalances and... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
