UK Economics Weekly Some signs that higher interest rates are working Higher interest rates appeared to have started to take a bigger toll on bank lending in April and on businesses’ inflation expectations in May. These data will have reassured the Bank of England that... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy does not make case for tightening The strength of the recent activity data means we are revising up our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.3%, from 6.0%. But given that inflation has come down a long way from its peak last year and is now... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand weighing on price pressures Although activity in the manufacturing sector looks to have improved somewhat in May, that was mainly due to stronger growth in some large emerging markets. The outlook for industry remains bleak... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing: a better Q2 but weakness ahead The manufacturing PMIs for May suggest that EM industry has, in aggregate, strengthened in Q2. Nonetheless, with the surveys pointing to further weakness in key DM trading partners, EM industry is... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The slight decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.9 in May, from 47.1, reinforces our view that the jump in manufacturing output in April won’t be sustained. But the bigger news was the renewed... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Recession postponed rather than cancelled Although the economy weathered the cost of living crisis much better than most expected, the full force of the cost of borrowing crunch has yet to be felt. And with it looking as though interest rates... 1st June 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2023) The breakdown of Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures suggests that the economy is not as strong as the staggering 1.9% q/q rise in output would suggest. Even so, the sharp rise in output has prompted us to revise... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Don’t give up on the Chinese consumer just yet The pessimism around China’s consumer recovery is overdone in our view. The labour market is tightening, which should soon start to benefit young jobseekers and support income growth. And consumers... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s economic woes rumble on The latest activity data for Korea were downbeat and support our view that the economy is set to weaken in the second quarter. Meanwhile, house prices fell further in May and are now down about 10%... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The fall in the South African manufacturing PMI in May leaves it at a level consistent with modest falls in output in the sector. And the collapse in the future conditions component suggests that... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing sector creates headaches for the RBA Although house prices in Australia made further gains in May, we don't think that's a sign that the broader economy will remain resilient in the face of monetary tightening. Indeed, residential... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose in May to a 31-month high and points to very healthy growth in the sector. But the survey also shows that price pressures are well past the peak, supporting our... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May.) Manufacturing PMIs declined in most countries in Emerging Asia. Weak demand and elevated inventory levels are likely to continue to weigh on manufacturing output in Asia over the coming quarters. 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The continued growth of Russian industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the strength of activity seen in Q1 continued at the start of Q2. This momentum is likely to be sustained... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
