Japan Economic Outlook Recession delayed but not cancelled The economy held up better at the start of the year than we had anticipated, but we still expect it to enter a recession in the second half of the year. Even though underlying inflation probably hasn... 12th June 2023 · 17 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA agriculture slump, rand recovers South Africa’s Q1 GDP figures released this week revealed a big drag from the agricultural sector. Some of the factors that weighed on output (namely the weather) are likely to prove temporary but... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Shift in risk appetite needed to revive property Rumoured plans to support housing demand by reducing the upfront cost of home purchases probably won’t be a game changer. New homes are already more affordable than they’ve ever been and yet... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recession to drag on The euro-zone has fallen into recession, albeit only by the finest of margins – the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in both Q4 last year and Q1 this year. The consensus view is that the worst is now... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal higher rates despite soft activity data We expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting but, in what could be characterised as a “hawkish skip”, to signal via forward guidance (updated SEP forecasts and... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Employment will not defy gravity forever We learnt this week that the euro-zone fell into recession but Eurostat confirmed that employment rose sharply in Q1. The labour market seems to have remained quite strong in April and May but we... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why interest rates haven’t hurt…yet Higher interest rates haven’t dented the real economy much because household incomes have been unusually strong and the interest rates households are actually paying on their loans has not yet risen... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai inflation below target, tourism rebound continues Inflation in Thailand fell back sharply last month and is now below the central bank’s target, further supporting our view that the BoT’s tightening cycle is now over. Tourism across Asia has... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shrinking output gap points to slower growth Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.7% q/q from 0.4% but we don’t think this strong performance will be sustained. One reason is that the output gap has narrowed significantly and points to a slowdown... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Rate cuts coming, but easing will be gradual The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but... 8th June 2023 · 21 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) News that GDP contracted in Q1 after all means that the euro-zone has already fallen into a technical recession. Given that the impact of policy tightening is yet to fully feed through, we suspect... 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) The narrowing of the trade surplus in April was driven in large part by a deterioration in the terms of trade. We think net exports will actually provide a modest boost to GDP growth this quarter. 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
