Canada Economics Weekly Macklem more confident that Bank will meet its target In his speech this week, Governor Tiff Macklem sounded much more confident that the Bank will be able to meet its 2% inflation target. The latest labour market and local housing data suggest that may... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria policy mistakes, South Africa austerity Recent interventionist actions from Nigeria’s central bank and government have heightened our fears that growing political pressures are undermining policy reforms. This could see Nigeria’s inflation... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A more promising outlook for productivity While we don’t think the recent upward revisions to GDP and productivity will prevent the UK economy from performing worse than most expect over the next year or so, we think there are genuine reasons... 8th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession risk looms over ECB meeting Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will have some new and gloomy data releases to contemplate when they gather in Frankfurt next week. Indeed, the euro-zone economy looks likely to be slipping into... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We still expect Australia to enter a recession The economy held a bit better last quarter than most had anticipated. And with the bulk of the RBA’s rate hikes now passed through to mortgage rates and inflation cooling, the largest falls in real... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cut, another delay to Egypt’s IMF review? Saudi Arabia announced it will roll over its additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut until the end of the year, which we think will push the economy into a sharp contraction over the second half... 7th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Falling inflation no guarantee of higher consumption We think that the positive impact of lower inflation on households’ real incomes in the coming quarters will be offset by weaker employment and nominal wage growth. As a result, we don’t think that... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Macro catch-up: the global state of play Developments in the past few weeks have moved the dial somewhat on the global story. In major DMs, there have been more signs of activity softening either in terms of output or employment, evidence of... 7th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Event MENA Drop-In: Can Egypt get its IMF deal back on track? 1694599200 Reports are swirling of yet more delay to the latest review of Egypt’s IMF deal, the central bank is preparing to meet in a pressurised market environment and speculation about a sovereign default
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s second-quarter GDP data means the economy is now thought to have essentially flat-lined since the fourth quarter of last year. With business surveys having... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) Aggregate German industrial output fell sharply again in July and the fall was even larger if the construction and energy sectors are excluded. We expect production to drop further in the rest of the... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Q2 GDP resilient, but weakness to come Excluding China, aggregate EM GDP growth held up surprisingly well in Q2. That said, we think growth will weaken in most major economies in Q3 and remain subdued over the coming quarters before a... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Aug.) The rise in the ISM services index to a six-month high of 54.5 in August, from 52.7, is a further sign that activity growth is holding up in the third quarter. That said, a weighted average of the two... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus What’s behind South Africa’s growth problem? South Africa’s economy has one of the weakest growth records of any EM over the past decade and its post-pandemic recovery has been particularly disappointing. At the heart of the problem are major... 6th September 2023 · 16 mins read
