Emerging Markets Economics Update Strong Q1 GDP, but growth slowdown in store EMs experienced a strong first quarter as GDP growth picked up almost across the board, but growth is likely to have slowed in most major economies in Q2 and we think it will remain soft in Q3. We don... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (May) Retail sales and fixed investment undershot expectations, and the property sector struggled. Industrial output improved slightly but is still fairly subdued. And although the labour market remained... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2023) The contraction in Q1 GDP means that a recession is now well under way in New Zealand. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBNZ will shift gears and start cutting rates before year... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Inflation falling, but core rates too sticky for comfort While headline CPI prints have been encouraging in recent months, policymakers will be nervous about the stickiness of core inflation. Average headline inflation in major advanced economies had... 14th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after dodging a technical recession in Q1, the economy made a bright start to the second quarter. But external and domestic headwinds, including... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The uptick in industrial production in April was mostly driven by strong growth in Ireland, with many other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to struggle this... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response UK Monthly GDP (Apr. 2023) The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in April, following March’s 0.3% m/m contraction will further raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession this year. But the rise in GDP is not as good as it... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The BoE's June meeting – Policy rates, mortgage rates and the macro outlook 1687442400 With inflation still running hot, the Bank of England has little choice to keep raising interest rates.
Africa Economic Outlook Home-grown and external headwinds to slow growth Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Apr.) The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Turkey for April suggest that GDP growth is likely to have remained subdued this quarter following the Q1 slowdown. A shift towards economic... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth mostly cyclical One reason for the slump in productivity is that the recent surge in working hours is producing diminishing returns. And we suspect that disruptions caused by the pandemic prevented firms from... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the... 12th June 2023 · 20 mins read
