China Economics Weekly Too soon to conclude property easing has failed It’s been two weeks since Chinese regulators announced a major easing of property controls and so far there hasn’t been a meaningful turnaround in new home sales at the national level. But many cities... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sept. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggests the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3. We expect it to shrink further in Q4... 15th September 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly G20 “success”, iPhone 15, Q4 Outlook The G20 summit in New Delhi, which managed to exceed low expectations, reinforces our view that in a global economy that is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, India will lean towards the US and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Although a slight uptick in activity was expected, the August data turned out to be even better than anticipated. Fiscal support shored up investment but the real bright spot was a healthy pick-up in... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, there are growing signs that many major economies are losing momentum. We expect most advanced economies to... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and rates, Morocco quake, new oil f’casts The further rise in inflation in August means that the Central Bank of Egypt will probably raise interest rates again next week, but investors (and the IMF) will be paying more attention to any news... 14th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in July and we think it will continue to do so over the remainder of the year in the face of weakening demand. 13th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2023) The 0.5% m/m fall in real GDP in July could possibly mean that the mild recession we have been expecting has begun. Even so, with wage growth still uncomfortably strong, we suspect the Bank of England... 13th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Few signs of a “nearshoring boom” in Mexico (yet) There’s little evidence in the investment and trade data so far to back up the commonly-cited narrative that Mexico is experiencing a “nearshoring” boom. The one sector where there are some signs of... 12th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Jul.) Industrial production softened a touch in Turkey in July but retail sales continued its recent run of strength and adds further support to the view that the economy is not yet slowing in response to... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How concerning is the weakness in GDI? The recent weakness of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is only partly because it includes the losses now being incurred by the Federal Reserve. Even after excluding those, GDI paints a much weaker picture... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a slightly larger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in output in July and the survey evidence suggests that activity continued to hold up well in August. But we still... 11th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of Morocco’s earthquake The devastating earthquake that hit Morocco on Friday evening has severe humanitarian consequences, but, from a purely economic standpoint, it should only have a small and short-lived impact on GDP... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession. But with real disposable incomes falling, we... 11th September 2023 · 1 min read
