India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jun 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th June 2023 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Hi-tech construction boom not reflected in output The investment boom in new hi-tech manufacturing plants is unprecedented, but that boom still hasn’t fed through into higher output or employment in hi-tech manufacturing and investment in IT... 20th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive tightening will weigh on activity With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a peak of 4.85% by September, whereas we suspect that the RBNZ is done tightening. Extremely tight monetary policy... 20th June 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Stagflation nation As the UK’s recent problem of higher inflation and slower economic growth than elsewhere is largely due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and Brexit, we think the UK will probably look like the... 19th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB to cut soon? Chile’s FX reserves Expectations for interest rate cuts in Brazil have grown in light of recent developments, but, for now, we’re sticking with our view that Copom will hold off on lowering interest rates until November... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Full impact of higher rates still to come Heavily indebted households are still being sheltered from the full impact of the surge in interest rates over the past 18 months, but their finances look ever-more perilous. 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker data likely to limit Fed to one more rate hike The Fed put its rate hiking cycle on pause this week but, in a hawkish shift, its new projections showed the median fed funds rate rising to 5.6% by year-end, which is consistent with 50bp of... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus needed, baby bust continues The initial policy response to the economy’s recent loss of momentum has been to cut interest rates. But on its own, this is unlikely to trigger a jump in household or corporate borrowing and spending... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strength in car exports unlikely to last Car exports have rebounded in recent months as supply shortages have eased, but Japan’s car industry is facing major headwinds as it is a laggard in the rollout of electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly No relief for Australian mortgagors All signs are that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority is unlikely to revise its guidance for the minimum serviceability buffer banks must apply when assessing home loan applicants. As a... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (May) The 0.3% m/m increase in retail sales included a 1.4% m/m gain in the value of motor vehicle sales, which is very hard to square with the 6.5% m/m decline in light vehicle unit sales already reported... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The resilience of manufacturing sales suggests easing supply shortages are still supporting activity, with the transport sector reaping much of the benefits. Nevertheless, the surveys point to a... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Strong Q1 GDP, but growth slowdown in store EMs experienced a strong first quarter as GDP growth picked up almost across the board, but growth is likely to have slowed in most major economies in Q2 and we think it will remain soft in Q3. We don... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
