Europe Economics Weekly More EZ stagflation ahead; hawkish central banks We think the euro-zone will experience a more severe case of stagflation than most expect, and inflation and survey data due next week are likely to support that view. Elsewhere, the SNB and Norges... 23rd June 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) June’s flash activity PMIs won’t do much to ease the Bank of England’s inflation fears, which suggests that yesterday’s interest rate rise to 5.00% won’t be the last. Our forecast is for rates to rise... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Weakness in both services and manufacturing sectors The fall in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI from 52.8 in May to 50.3 in June left it even lower than our below-consensus forecast. On the face of it, the index still points to a small expansion in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2023) The further rebound in retail sales volumes in May suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But we think it’s too soon to conclude the rebound in retail sales will be... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Job mobility eases, critical minerals policy disappoints The latest Labour Force Survey data show that labour mobility in Australia is coming off the boil. That should help contain wage pressures going forward, given that job switching typically results in... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan remains dovish despite strong inflation Underlying inflation hit a 42-year high in May and the Bank of Japan will need to push back the timing by when it expects inflation to fall back below its 2% target at its upcoming meeting in July... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) The fall in manufacturing PMI readings in June’s flash estimates suggest the recession we’re expecting in the second half might have already begun this month. Meanwhile, the steady fall in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) Easing financial conditions, improving consumer sentiment and the stabilisation in housing suggest that the risks of an imminent recession have eased slightly. Nonetheless, our tracking models still... 22nd June 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Slower growth, falling inflation and interest rate cuts GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity... 22nd June 2023 · 34 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from Egypt FM briefing; our latest forecasts The key takeaways from a recent briefing with Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohammed Maait are that the government is committed to keeping fiscal policy tight and bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio... 22nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Surge in interest rates means yields will rise further All-property yields have seen no movement for the past two months and combined with resilient rental growth that means capital values have held firm since March. But stubbornly high inflation has led... 22nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Turning a corner, but a difficult road ahead Downturns in activity are bottoming out in Emerging Europe, current account deficits are narrowing and disinflation has taken hold across the region. But the road ahead still looks challenging. We... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest... 21st June 2023 · 20 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jun 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th June 2023 · 1 min read
