Europe Economics Update Lending data point to recession The latest euro-zone money and credit data show that tighter ECB policy is continuing to weigh on households’ and firms’ borrowing, as well as influencing what they do with their savings. The weakness... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rising corporate bankruptcies another warning sign Rising bankruptcy filings by large corporations are another reason to doubt that the economy will continue to grow at close to its potential rate, as the Federal Reserve now seems to believe. 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy buckling under weight of high interest rates We expect another few quarters of near-zero GDP growth to lead to an annual gain of just 0.7% next year. Even with higher oil prices, the weakness of economic growth leaves scope for CPI inflation to... 26th September 2023 · 14 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth prospects for 2024 improving After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 25th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Economic weakness to prompt policy easing in 2024 GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on... 25th September 2023 · 34 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Sep.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) confirmed that the German economy remained in the doldrums in September. We continue to expect contractions in GDP in both Q3 and Q4 of this year. 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s subsidy and new MPC, South Africa fiscal fear The recent pick-up in oil prices will provide welcome hard currency income for Nigeria. But, with local fuel prices being kept stable, high oil prices and a weak naira also signal the return of the... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with interest rate peaks The September Flash PMIs add to evidence that economic activity in the US and Europe is weakening. This supports our view that the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England have finished hiking interest rates. 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although EM growth held up well in H1, growth will disappoint over the coming quarters... 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September left it still in contractionary territory. We think a further contraction in activity lies ahead in the remainder of this year. 22nd September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2023) The fall in the activity PMI further below the boom-bust level of 50.0 in September suggests the economy may already be in recession. And with weaker activity weighing more heavily on price pressures... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2023) The 0.4% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in August isn’t as good as it looks as it partly reflected a pickup in sales after the unusually wet weather in July. And while the worst of the falls in... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Higher energy inflation won’t prompt further rate hikes The recent jump in crude oil prices will lift headline inflation in Australia, but we doubt it will have much bearing on underlying inflation. Accordingly, we still think that the RBA's next move will... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
