Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Leading the shift towards monetary easing Aggregate EM GDP held up better than we had expected over the first half of the year, but we think that a phase of softer growth lies in store over the coming quarters. Our near-term GDP growth... 28th September 2023 · 27 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September and our regional GDP-weighted measure edged down slightly, but the survey is... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (September) The weak outturn for the euro-zone’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in September supports our view that the economy will contract in Q3. But the rise in the employment expectations and firms’... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales lost some momentum in August. However, with sales volumes still running above their pre-pandemic trend, that shouldn’t stop the RBA for hiking its cash rate by another 25bp. 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s industrial production and retail sales data for August suggest that activity remained fairly solid and we think the economy is on track for GDP growth of 2.5% this year. Monetary policy has... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Strong immigration and the resilience of the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada keeping further rate hikes on the table, we still judge... 27th September 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Balance sheet problems to weigh on recoveries Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and... 27th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Emerging Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at... 27th September 2023 · 0 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike again, rate cuts only in Q2 2024 Stronger-than-expected GDP and inflation data should cement the case for the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Given the shifting balance of risks, we think the Bank will... 27th September 2023 · 8 mins read
