South Africa Activity Data (May) The worse-than-expected South African retail sales figures for May add to the raft of weak activity data and it looks like things may get even worse over the coming months. Coupled with figures... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone probably contracted again in Q2 The latest data suggest that the euro-zone remained in recession in Q2. We think that the economy will continue to contract in the second half of the year as the impact of tighter monetary policy... 19th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian consumer hits speed bump Provisional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that consumer spending slumped in Q2, as households sharply pared back discretionary expenditure. Faced with falling real incomes and... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: policy shift already weighing on activity The blow to Nigeria’s economy from a failed demonetisation exercise is fading but there are already signs that the inflationary effects of the devaluation of the naira and removal of fuel subsidies... 18th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The further slump in industrial production in June illustrates that some parts of the economy are already struggling and, as global manufacturing demand continues to soften, we expect further weakness... 18th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How heavily are interest rates weighing on GDP? Splitting real GDP growth into the sectors most and least sensitive to interest rates provides some tentative evidence that higher interest rates are starting to weigh a bit more heavily on real... 18th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Chile’s recovery is set to surprise on the upside The large macroeconomic imbalances that built up during Chile’s post-pandemic recovery have eased substantially, which is likely to prompt the central bank to deliver more rate cuts than almost any... 17th July 2023 · 13 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun.) GDP growth slowed more quickly than expected in Q2 due to a rapid fizzling out of the reopening boost. Continued weakness in the property sector, possible loosening in the labour market and few signs... 17th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish hike still likely to be the last in this cycle The Bank of Canada struck a hawkish tone at its meeting this week, emphasising persistent excess demand and sticky price inflation. Nonetheless, with the upgrades to the Bank’s GDP and inflation... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Public finance risks in Colombia, boom in Mexico? The concerns about Colombia’s public finances that flared up this week are warranted in our view. We think that the public debt burden will remain well above its pre-pandemic level and higher than in... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Loadshedding in SA, Kenya protests, Nigeria policy shift Cold weather in South Africa prompted officials to return to Stage 6 loadshedding this week, threatening a fresh blow to the economy. We doubt that concerns about the inflationary impact of power cuts... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tighter policy on the cards, Germany’s China Strategy This week brought another raft of weak data on the euro-zone economy. And further struggles lie ahead, with the minutes of the June ECB meeting and a statement released by EU finance ministers... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey policy, Polish spending, Russia’s current account The raft of data for May out of Turkey this week underscored the precarious state of the economy prior to the shift back to orthodox economic policymaking. The central bank needs to use next week’s... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 14th July 2023 · 1 min read
