US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 3.2% m/m jump in durable goods orders in March mainly reflects a stronger-than-expected gain in the more volatile commercial aircraft component, with the details suggesting that first-quarter... 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF deals in choppy waters Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first... 26th April 2023 · 12 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Q1 surge will push 2023 growth over 8% Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy bounced back rapidly in Q1, with growth since the start of the pandemic now broadly back in line with the official GDP data. And while the... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1) GDP in Korea rose slightly during the first quarter of the year but we think the economy faces a difficult year ahead as high interest rates and weak external demand weigh on output. 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack The monetary policy tide is (slowly) turning EM central banks have, in general, remained in hawkish mood over recent weeks. Tightening cycles have continued in Mexico, Colombia and South Africa in response to high inflation, while policymakers... 24th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The Ifo Business Climate Index rose again in April but remained in contractionary territory. This is contrast to the PMIs which point to much stronger economic performance at the start of Q2. 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data out of Poland were weaker than expected and suggest the economy may now be in a technical recession. Activity may start to bottom out soon, but we don’t think the economy is set... 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation shocks, Ghana growth The surprise rises in inflation in March in Sub-Saharan Africa's two biggest economies are likely to put pressure on policymakers in Nigeria and South Africa to raise interest rates further. Elsewhere... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs still pointing to robust GDP growth Once again the PMIs suggest that real activity in advanced economies continues to shrug off the effects of higher interest rates. According to the flash PMIs, GDP and employment growth both got off to... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) After a strong start to the year, retail sales volumes dropped back in February and the preliminary estimate implies they fell again in March. While consumption probably still rose at a healthy pace... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona versus Krone, Switzerland outperforming We expect the Norwegian krone and the Swedish Krone to appreciate against the euro this year. The krone looks significantly undervalued to us, whereas the krona is likely to benefit from the Riksbank... 21st April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong start to Q2, 50bp May hike still on the cards The latest surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy started Q2 on a strong footing. With underlying price pressures also still strong, we think a 50bp hike at the ECB meeting in May remains the most... 21st April 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s flash PMIs suggest the economy is still proving resilient to the dual drags of high inflation and high interest rates going into Q2. That, alongside evidence suggesting that domestic... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read