Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus needed, baby bust continues The initial policy response to the economy’s recent loss of momentum has been to cut interest rates. But on its own, this is unlikely to trigger a jump in household or corporate borrowing and spending... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strength in car exports unlikely to last Car exports have rebounded in recent months as supply shortages have eased, but Japan’s car industry is facing major headwinds as it is a laggard in the rollout of electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly No relief for Australian mortgagors All signs are that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority is unlikely to revise its guidance for the minimum serviceability buffer banks must apply when assessing home loan applicants. As a... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (May) The 0.3% m/m increase in retail sales included a 1.4% m/m gain in the value of motor vehicle sales, which is very hard to square with the 6.5% m/m decline in light vehicle unit sales already reported... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The resilience of manufacturing sales suggests easing supply shortages are still supporting activity, with the transport sector reaping much of the benefits. Nevertheless, the surveys point to a... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Strong Q1 GDP, but growth slowdown in store EMs experienced a strong first quarter as GDP growth picked up almost across the board, but growth is likely to have slowed in most major economies in Q2 and we think it will remain soft in Q3. We don... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (May) Retail sales and fixed investment undershot expectations, and the property sector struggled. Industrial output improved slightly but is still fairly subdued. And although the labour market remained... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2023) The contraction in Q1 GDP means that a recession is now well under way in New Zealand. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBNZ will shift gears and start cutting rates before year... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Inflation falling, but core rates too sticky for comfort While headline CPI prints have been encouraging in recent months, policymakers will be nervous about the stickiness of core inflation. Average headline inflation in major advanced economies had... 14th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after dodging a technical recession in Q1, the economy made a bright start to the second quarter. But external and domestic headwinds, including... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The uptick in industrial production in April was mostly driven by strong growth in Ireland, with many other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to struggle this... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response UK Monthly GDP (Apr. 2023) The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in April, following March’s 0.3% m/m contraction will further raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession this year. But the rise in GDP is not as good as it... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read