Europe Economics Update Increase in bank lending won’t stop ECB from cutting Data released this morning showed that bank lending in the euro-zone picked up towards the end of last year. But we doubt that this is the start of a sustained turnaround. We expect the impact of... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Turkey for December suggest that industrial sectors ended 2023 on a relatively soft note. But Russia remained the outlier, where the... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade (December) The December PMIs for most economies in Emerging Asia stood well inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory... 2nd January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Dec.) The official and Caixin PMIs have moved in opposite directions recently. But taken together, they point to some improvement in economic momentum in December thanks to gains in services and... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore GDP (Q4, adv) Economic growth in Singapore accelerated in Q4 but the economy is set to enter a period of renewed weakness in the near term as support from external demand fades while domestic demand remains weak. 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: economic weakness to prompt rate cuts in 2024 GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in Q4 but this strength is unlikely to last if, as we expect, exports weaken and commercial banks pull back on lending in response to a sharp rise in non-performing... 29th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all... 28th December 2023 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Looming manufacturing downturn another headwind Industrial output has usually fallen rather sharply whenever firms were as pessimistic about the production outlook as they are now. That’s consistent with our view that GDP growth next year will be... 28th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov. 23) 28th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls for 2024 Our three key calls for 2024 are that growth will struggle, inflation will fall and that central banks will start to cut interest rates sooner than most expect. 22nd December 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy still easing but not enough to hit growth target Although the Loan Prime Rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, today’s coordinated reductions in commercial bank deposit rates suggest the PBOC is still on an easing path. Meanwhile, a lower headline... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The good news on inflation should continue in 2024 It is striking that the big fall in UK CPI inflation so far has followed the US closely, albeit with a six month lag. This reflects the fact there have been common drivers of inflation across advanced... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2024 In our final Weekly of 2023 we explore three key themes for the coming year - when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, the economic impact of the general election, and the outlook for the... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2023 Final) The 0.1% q/q fall in real GDP in Q3 may mean that the mildest of mild recessions started in Q3. But whether or not there is a small recession, the big picture is that we expect real GDP growth to... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
