US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) Easing financial conditions, improving consumer sentiment and the stabilisation in housing suggest that the risks of an imminent recession have eased slightly. Nonetheless, our tracking models still... 22nd June 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Slower growth, falling inflation and interest rate cuts GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity... 22nd June 2023 · 34 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from Egypt FM briefing; our latest forecasts The key takeaways from a recent briefing with Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohammed Maait are that the government is committed to keeping fiscal policy tight and bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio... 22nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Surge in interest rates means yields will rise further All-property yields have seen no movement for the past two months and combined with resilient rental growth that means capital values have held firm since March. But stubbornly high inflation has led... 22nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Turning a corner, but a difficult road ahead Downturns in activity are bottoming out in Emerging Europe, current account deficits are narrowing and disinflation has taken hold across the region. But the road ahead still looks challenging. We... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest... 21st June 2023 · 20 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jun 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th June 2023 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Hi-tech construction boom not reflected in output The investment boom in new hi-tech manufacturing plants is unprecedented, but that boom still hasn’t fed through into higher output or employment in hi-tech manufacturing and investment in IT... 20th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive tightening will weigh on activity With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a peak of 4.85% by September, whereas we suspect that the RBNZ is done tightening. Extremely tight monetary policy... 20th June 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Stagflation nation As the UK’s recent problem of higher inflation and slower economic growth than elsewhere is largely due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and Brexit, we think the UK will probably look like the... 19th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB to cut soon? Chile’s FX reserves Expectations for interest rate cuts in Brazil have grown in light of recent developments, but, for now, we’re sticking with our view that Copom will hold off on lowering interest rates until November... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Full impact of higher rates still to come Heavily indebted households are still being sheltered from the full impact of the surge in interest rates over the past 18 months, but their finances look ever-more perilous. 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker data likely to limit Fed to one more rate hike The Fed put its rate hiking cycle on pause this week but, in a hawkish shift, its new projections showed the median fed funds rate rising to 5.6% by year-end, which is consistent with 50bp of... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read