Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Starting gun fires for the EM easing cycle Central bank meetings this month suggest that we’re now on the brink of an EM monetary easing cycle. In China, the Loan Prime Rates were lowered in response to flagging growth. And elsewhere, some... 27th June 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods (May) The 1.7% m/m rise in durable goods orders in May was stronger than we had expected, even accounting for a big rise in the volatile commercial aircraft component. But the wider evidence still suggests... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Resilience giving way to recession Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several... 27th June 2023 · 46 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update India headlining EM rise up the global rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery levels off as reopening boost fades Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy stagnated in May as the tailwind from reopening fizzled out. We think officials will roll out sufficient policy support to keep the... 26th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (June) The slump in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs, released on Friday, suggests that German GDP probably contracted for the third quarter in a row in Q2. We expect the economy to remain... 26th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Growth slowing but services inflation still high June’s flash PMIs suggest that not only has activity in advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2, but the outlook has also deteriorated further. This is particularly true in the manufacturing sector... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Intel investments, Q3 Outlook The central bank meetings in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey that took place this week all produced different outcomes, and policymakers’ communications suggest that interest rates in these countries will... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More EZ stagflation ahead; hawkish central banks We think the euro-zone will experience a more severe case of stagflation than most expect, and inflation and survey data due next week are likely to support that view. Elsewhere, the SNB and Norges... 23rd June 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) June’s flash activity PMIs won’t do much to ease the Bank of England’s inflation fears, which suggests that yesterday’s interest rate rise to 5.00% won’t be the last. Our forecast is for rates to rise... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Weakness in both services and manufacturing sectors The fall in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI from 52.8 in May to 50.3 in June left it even lower than our below-consensus forecast. On the face of it, the index still points to a small expansion in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2023) The further rebound in retail sales volumes in May suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But we think it’s too soon to conclude the rebound in retail sales will be... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Job mobility eases, critical minerals policy disappoints The latest Labour Force Survey data show that labour mobility in Australia is coming off the boil. That should help contain wage pressures going forward, given that job switching typically results in... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan remains dovish despite strong inflation Underlying inflation hit a 42-year high in May and the Bank of Japan will need to push back the timing by when it expects inflation to fall back below its 2% target at its upcoming meeting in July... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023) The fall in manufacturing PMI readings in June’s flash estimates suggest the recession we’re expecting in the second half might have already begun this month. Meanwhile, the steady fall in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read