Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Jordan’s economy stuck in malaise

Economic growth in Jordan has been sluggish for the best part of a decade and the outlook doesn't look much brighter. While the renewed IMF programme will help to contain external strains, the Israel...

11th January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

Loan defaults unlikely to hinder economic recovery

The lagged effects of the weak economy and high interest rates may mean that loan default rates rise in the coming months. But the prospect of interest rate cuts later this year will mean they won’t...

10th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

Is the worst behind us for business bankruptcies?

The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings last quarter is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of...

10th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will...

10th January 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Update

State & local government spending boom set to end

The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade.

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Expect more EM growth divergence in 2024

Aggregate EM GDP growth is set to slow in 2024, but as important as the overall story is understanding the different cycles that are playing out at a country level. We think some countries which...

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Update

Why has FDI into India slumped?

The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop...

9th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

German industry still has further to fall

Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy...

9th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Nov.)

Although retail sales bounced back with a vengeance in November, that result largely reflected a one-off boost from Black Friday sales. With underlying momentum in consumer spending weaker than the...

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Mexico: will nearshoring live up to the hype?

The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics...

8th January 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.) & EC Survey (Dec.)

The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have contracted than expanded in the fourth quarter of last year. They also suggest that while...

8th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally continued to rise in December and point to regional activity strengthening at the end of 2023...

8th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high in December, helped by an easing of loadshedding. Alongside hopes that recent freight problems are past the worst, this chimes with our view...

8th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP

Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t...

5th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Housing market starting to improve

Conditions in the housing market seem to be improving, with the local real estate board data pointing to a big improvement in the home sales-to-new listing ratio in December. While the unseasonably...

5th January 2024 · 5 mins read