Event Drop-In: Why “higher for longer” won’t survive – and what it means for markets 11th October 2023, 3:00PM BST Markets have been in a febrile mood amid a growing belief that central banks will need to keep interest rates at elevated levels in order to properly throttle inflation. But are expectations that...
Global Economics Update PMIs: Lower core goods inflation in the pipeline September’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity stagnated at the end of Q3, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakness ahead. The recent rise in oil prices seemed... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs a mixed bag, but export demand still weak The EM manufacturing PMIs for September were the proverbial mixed bag, but one commonality is that external demand remains fairly soft across the regions. Meanwhile, the further rise in the price... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a fresh large fall in September, suggesting that the pick-up in activity in August was a one-off. We expect growth to remain sluggish over the coming quarters... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of Emerging Europe last month, but remained consistent with weak industrial activity in Poland and Czechia. In Russia, the further rise in the prices... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korean trade, Indonesia CPI The PMIs for September suggest that manufacturing activity across Emerging Asia remained weak last month. Worryingly, the PMIs point to a further rise in price pressures across the region, with the... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Sep.) The PMI surveys suggest another month of stable economic activity in September. A continued acceleration in construction activity appears to have offset a further softening in services activity... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to cut rates as core inflation normalises We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.1% this year to only 0.8% in 2024, with the economy still likely to experience a near recession around the end of this year. Core inflation will continue to fall... 29th September 2023 · 16 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a... 29th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Revisions leave economic landscape unchanged The comprehensive revisions to the GDP data did not make a significant change to the macroeconomic story, with the real economy still 6.1% larger than in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the discrepancy... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off highlights fiscal risks The increase in euro-zone bond yields earlier this week seems to have been mostly a function of shifting global sentiment rather than a response to news from Europe itself. But it is a reminder that... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pressure on the pound to persist We think the markets are wrong to expect the Fed to keep interest rates at their peak for almost as long as the Bank of England. If so, then the recent downward pressure on the pound from the decline... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal India strike raises risk of power outages Next week's three-day strike by workers at Coal India in dispute over wages raises the risk of power outages across the country, given that coal stocks are already at their lowest level this year... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q2 2023 Final) The final Q2 2023 GDP data release shows that the economy was a bit more resilient in the first half of this year than we previously thought. But other indicators suggest this is now fading. We still... 29th September 2023 · 3 mins read
