Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2024) EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies... 23rd January 2024 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery continuing at the end of 2023 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s economy in the era of AI India is certain to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next decade, but the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) will hamper rather than help its rise. This is in... 23rd January 2024 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Case for tighter macroprudential measures is weak While Australian households are as indebted as ever and mortgage payments have hit fresh record-highs, lending standards continue to be sound, loan defaults remain subdued and banks are well... 23rd January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of this year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting from March onwards, with rates eventually... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Still unbalanced, still unsustainable Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In... 22nd January 2024 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) Poland’s retail sales data for December suggest that consumer spending weakened at the end of last year, although the industrial sector held up better than expected and we think that the economic... 22nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New year, no cheer There was little for the Bank of Canada to be encouraged by this week, with evidence of a further deterioration in the economy yet little sign of a fall in inflation expectations or downward pressure... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the soft landing in jeopardy? This week’s stronger-than-expected news on inflation and weaker-than expected news on activity doesn’t mean that a soft landing for the economy is no longer the most likely outcome. Instead, there’s... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Swiss policymakers may cut rates before ECB ECB policymakers have set out their stall ahead of next Thursday’s meeting and will continue to push back against expectations of early rate cuts – notwithstanding mounting evidence that the economy... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector doing better, births may rise in 2024 After years of being buffeted by trade tensions and a domestic regulatory crackdown, China’s tech sector has finally regained a bit of momentum recently. And although China’s population will shrink... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q4, advanced estimate) GDP declined during the fourth quarter and we expect activity to remain weak in the near term amid elevated interest rates, a cooling labour market, soft foreign demand and subdued commodity prices. 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to push back against early rate cut bets The ECB is certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week, leaving the deposit rate at 4%, and we expect Christine Lagarde to push back against expectations for rate cuts in the first half of this... 18th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s activity data for South Africa show that while economic headwinds are easing, growth is still very soft. Still, less electricity outages and restrictive fiscal policy should allow for a... 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
