Canada Economic Outlook

Strong start to 2025 unlikely to be sustained

The near-term economic outlook has brightened, with lower interest rates feeding through and consumption benefitting from the recent strong pace of real income growth. That should help to drive...

18th December 2024 · 14 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region...

17th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain...

17th December 2024 · 19 mins read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (Nov. 2024)

The fall in industrial production in November, despite the partial reversal of the earlier temporary disruptions caused by the hurricanes and strike at Boeing, highlights that the factory sector is...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Stimulus bounce will be short-lived

China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more...

17th December 2024 · 16 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (December 2024)

After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (December 2024)

The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained deep in recessionary territory in December. While the survey has overstated the weakness in the economy this year, the outlook is quite poor and we think...

17th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs probably overstating extent of US outperformance

The latest batch of PMIs suggests that the US economy is growing strongly while Europe is stagnating or contracting. The US economy is no doubt growing more strongly than its advanced economy peers...

16th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Focus

Immigration curbs a key downside risk to DM growth

Immigration has probably added around 0.6%-pts to GDP growth per year on average across advanced economies since the pandemic. But tighter restrictions on immigration will weigh heavily on GDP growth...

16th December 2024 · 29 mins read

Key risks in 2025: What could go wrong (and right)?

Europe Economic Outlook

Low growth, low inflation, low rates

We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening...

16th December 2024 · 28 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Dec. 2024)

Despite the composite PMI staying at 50.5 in December, at face value it’s consistent with the 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q3 being followed by a 0.3%q/q contraction in Q4. Admittedly, we doubt the...

16th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December 2024)

December’s PMI survey for the euro-zone suggests that the economy is contracting and that price pressures remain largely under control.

16th December 2024 · 2 mins read