Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak activity data, but recovery to resume The February activity figures out of South Africa showed that the economy was struggling even before the added headwind from US import tariffs. But while there are downside risks to growth, we still... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threat Our working assumption is that the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will be made permanent, with tariffs remaining at 10% for most countries apart from China. Providing... 16th April 2025 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Mar 2025) The fall in industrial production in March was not as bad as it looks given that it was driven solely by a large weather-related drop in utilities output. Manufacturing enjoyed a strong first quarter... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar. 2025) A presumably temporary pre-tariff surge in motor vehicle sales drove the strong 1.4% m/m increase in retail sales in March. But there was also a big 3.3% m/m rebound in building materials sales and a... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The direct impact of Trump’s trade war on the region is likely to be... 16th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely see limited direct impact from the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. But the bigger growth worry should come from the US trade turmoil... 16th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A primer on Australia’s general election The upcoming federal election on 3rd May appears likely to result in a hung parliament. Although the ruling Labor party’s recent uptick in the polls suggest that it is in pole position to form a... 16th April 2025 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2025) China’s economy regained some momentum in March thanks to fiscal support, which helped the Q1 GDP figures beat expectations. Still, this wasn’t enough to deliver faster growth over the quarter as a... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin America generally got off lightly on ‘liberation day’, but the indirect... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (February 2025) The increase in euro-zone industrial production for a second consecutive month in February is not a sign of a sustained recovery for the sector. Instead, it is partly due to manufacturers ramping up... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ bank lending in decent shape before US tariff shock The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey paints a positive picture of the housing market. Conditions for consumer credit and corporate loans were less encouraging, and the tariff chaos of the past two weeks... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan's economy will be hit less hard than many other large economies by the recent escalation of... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weaker business confidence would force RBA’s hand While the recent drop in crude oil prices would lower inflation a bit, that drag will be more than offset by a boost from the weaker Australian dollar. The upshot is that barring a sharp fall in... 14th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Decision (April 2025) Singapore’s central bank loosened monetary policy again today and with inflation set to remain low and the economy weak, further easing looks likely in the coming quarters. 14th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trade war rollercoaster generating mixed pressures The 90-day pause on US “reciprocal tariffs” has reduced the scale of near-term downside risks to economic growth across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has managed to avoid being hit... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
