Commodities Update

China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets

Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go...

5th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Climate Monthly: Risks to EU carbon policy; China reforms renewables

The EU’s climate policy announcements this week point to a shift in tone that suggests a lower willingness to impose costs on private firms. That poses a growing risk to the future of the bloc’s...

28th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Is the EU backsliding on climate policy?

The EU’s Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus packages mark a shift in climate policy as pushback against the costs of climate action grows. With the EU less willing to impose costs on the private sector...

27th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Emissions reduction efforts becoming fractured

Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more...

19th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

A nuanced take on renewable rollout outperformance

On the face of it, the fact that the world is installing more renewable electricity generating capacity than seemed likely just a few years ago is encouraging for the green transition. That said, one...

13th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Trump’s word on climate is not the be-all and end-all

Whilst Donald Trump is threatening to slam the brakes on the green transition in the US, state-level officials have the tools to continue making progress on the climate front. This Update uses our...

9th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads

Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Focus

Transition impacts in the spotlight

The fact that climate mitigation policies can manifest themselves in a range of macroeconomic outcomes will make it difficult for central bankers to know how to respond appropriately. Meanwhile, the...

27th November 2024 · 15 mins read

Climate Economics Update

One US deficit that won’t worry Trump

President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Trump-shaped shadow looms large over COP29

COP29 – which is set to kick off in Baku next week – has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’ given that the top priority for negotiators will be to agree on a new climate finance pledge. However, Trump’s...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

What to make of the rise in global emissions

New data released in the past week show that global greenhouse gas emissions rose by almost 2% y/y in 2023. Most of this increase was driven by growth in China’s emissions as its economy recovered...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Injecting some nuance into high hopes for hydrogen

Hydrogen could play a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as steelmaking and be a boon for countries and regions that are well placed to produce a surplus of renewable power...

10th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Focus

How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy?

A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris...

25th June 2024 · 13 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Emissions in China are close to a turning point

China’s rapid uptake of clean power means that it is on track to overachieve on its target of reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. That said, the pace of decline will be slow at first...

13th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand

The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a...

12th June 2024 · 4 mins read