Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s economy may be turning a corner

South Africa’s latest hard activity data provided some encouraging signs that the economy may be turning the corner even if it comes too late to help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in...

17th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Five key challenges for Mexico’s next president

The latest polls ahead of Mexico’s election on 2nd June suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum, protégée of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), is likely to become the country’s next...

17th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector

Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one...

16th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Zuma to stand, SA activity, Nigeria fuel prices

A court decision this week in South Africa has laid the ground for former president Zuma to stand in next month’s elections and opinion polls suggest that his MK Party will become the third largest in...

12th April 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Manufacturing ambitions across the political spectrum

The general election kicks off in a week and manifestos are finally being released. Manifestos are rarely followed closely in India, but nevertheless it is encouraging that there is broad agreement...

12th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey election: AKP defeat = good news for investors

The strong showing for the opposition in Turkey’s local elections on Sunday highlights the extent of voter frustration with high inflation and we think that it should be interpreted as a positive for...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview

The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s...

28th March 2024 · 10 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators

We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the...

22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s economy adding to the ANC’s struggles

South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy continued to struggle at the start of 2024, which will hardly help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in parliament after May’s...

20th March 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Focus

The general election: what is at stake?

The biggest democratic exercise in history will shortly take place as India votes in its general election, starting on 19 th April. Given client interest, we are resending our Election Primer, first...

19th March 2024 · 12 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook

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Emerging Europe Economics Update

Putin 5.0: what to look out for now

Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Focus

Reshoring still more myth than reality

Although it has been a priority for the last three administrations, the reshoring of lost manufacturing jobs remains more myth than reality. There has been a significant boom in the construction of hi...

12th March 2024 · 11 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico?

The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter...

12th March 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada

The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada...

11th March 2024 · 5 mins read