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Drop-In: US and Europe to raise China tariffs – A new phase in global fracturing?

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After weeks of rising tensions around the question of Chinese industrial overcapacity, the Biden administration has announced a new raft of tariffs on goods from China.

Europe Economics Update

What to expect from the European Parliament election

An increase in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections in June will have little bearing on economic policy in the near term because the more centrist parties should still win...

13th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s Pemex problem, Copom’s politicisation

Comments from Mexican officials this week that the government could take some of Pemex’s debts onto its own balance sheet would ease the firm's default risks. But it would come at the expense of a...

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

How can South Africa tackle its public debt problem?

The South African government has turned to fiscal austerity in an effort to stabilise the public debt ratio and to keep investors on board, but this is likely to become harder to do post-election...

9th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: fiscal concerns return to the spotlight

The Mexican government’s pre-election spending spree means that the next administration will have its work cut out to put the country’s public finances back onto a stable footing. Claudia Sheinbaum...

8th May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

What would Trump’s return mean for India?

With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display this week, we look at the implications of a possible second Trump presidency for India. While a 10% tariff on US imports could dent...

3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising

The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services...

3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

OECD too gloomy, rebound in job vacancies fleeting

Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect explains why we think the OECD’s recent take on the UK economy is too gloomy. And while the recent rebound in job vacancies could...

3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Panama’s next president to face growing fiscal challenge

José Raúl Mulino, the front-runner in Panama’s presidential election scheduled for Sunday, has pledged to reinvigorate growth. But as we’ve been arguing for some time, the economy’s time as Latin...

29th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

What Trump’s return would mean for EMs

All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal...

29th April 2024 · 13 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal

The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

Fiscal Headroom Monitor: Limited scope for tax cuts

If sustained, the recent rises in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields may mean that the Chancellor has only around £5bn of fiscal headroom, down from £8.9bn in the March Budget, with...

23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s fragmenting parliament a fiscal headache

South Africa’s upcoming general election looks likely to result in a much more fragmented parliament and mark a shift to coalition government. The lesson from elsewhere in the emerging world is that...

23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts

The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest...

19th April 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Election begins, RBI intervention, Middle East tensions

India's mammoth general election has just kicked off. Results will be announced on 4 th June and as things stand, PM Modi’s BJP looks on course for another big win. Meanwhile, the rupee fell to a...

19th April 2024 · 4 mins read