Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker... 24th May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economic tailwind for the election winner While the economic data released between now and the general election on 4 th July is unlikely to have a big influence on the result, further falls in inflation, interest rates and gilt yields may... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Is PM Modi on the backfoot? As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa’s election: into the unknown? South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in... 23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read
India Economics Update China’s threat to Indian manufacturing India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update What will the July general election mean for the economy? The general election on Thursday 4th July, which the Prime Minister announced today, may usher in a new political era but it is unlikely to lead to a dramatically different economic outlook. The... 22nd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How India’s election outcome could shape its economic outlook 1717509600 The results of India’s multi-week general election on 4th June aren’t expected to hold many surprises about the country’s next government, with polls suggesting Narendra Modi
Europe Economics Update An early look at Germany’s next general election The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the... 20th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC bets on health insurance bill, Nigeria inflation South African President Ramaphosa's approval of the controversial National Health Insurance bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly DR votes, Lula intervenes, Argentine officials cheer Dominicans are set to re-elect President Luis Abinader on Sunday and there's widespread hope among investors that his second term will see further measures to improve the public finances. Elsewhere... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How will Mexico’s election affect nearshoring prospects? The policies of the Mexican presidential frontrunner, Claudia Sheinbaum, would provide a more supportive environment for the nearshoring of manufacturing supply chains. But we doubt that she’ll carry... 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Event LatAm Drop-In: Mexico’s next president – Economic risk and opportunity 1717423200 The winner of Mexico’s presidential election on 2nd June will have a busy in-tray, from taking advantage of the opportunities presented by near-shoring to the challenges posed
Africa Economics Update S. Africa’s economy on the backfoot ahead of election The latest hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2024 and, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, this ongoing weakness will put... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read