Africa Economics Weekly SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s... 7th June 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The disconnect between the tax and spending plans While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a... 7th June 2024 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dust settling on election, MPC pendulum swinging Indian equities have ended an extraordinary week higher than where they began, which we think partly reflects the fact that investors have realised that a coalition government is not a terminal blow... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could rise after the election? Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update What Modi 3.0 means for India's economy Narendra Modi will begin his third term as India’s Prime Minister with a weakened mandate and that will make the passage of contentious economic reforms more difficult. But he will still be able to... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico’s election Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed... 3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s election: entering the unknown South Africa’s final election results confirmed that support for the ANC fell far short of a majority, leaving it reliant on a coalition with one of the larger opposition parties to stay in power. The... 3rd June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico’s Election Result The ruling Morena candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, is on course to be declared the country’s next (and first female) president after Sunday’s election and the party’s coalition also appears to be on... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India General Election 2024 Narendra Modi appears well on course for a third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister according to exit polls that project another big parliamentary majority for the BJP. 2nd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections: State of play & implications for the SARB South Africa’s election results have continued to trickle in, but the overriding message since the early hours of the count is that the ANC has fallen well short of a majority. A coalition with one of... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority? With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico heads to the polls, IMF’s optimism about Brazil Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday and, while Claudia Sheinbaum appears to be a shoo-in to win the presidency, attention will probably focus on the congressional results which will determine her... 31st May 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in a momentous week India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa’s Election The early results from South Africa’s election which took place yesterday point to the ruling ANC securing a vote share closer to the low end of projections (at just over 40%), increasing the chances... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
