Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela?

Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Markets Focus

The US election and financial markets three months out

Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump...

1st August 2024 · 18 mins read

US Economics Focus

Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it...

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Global Markets Focus

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall.

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries

Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections

Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants...

25th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain

Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”...

23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

US Drop-In: After Biden – Macro and market risks as the election race takes a twist

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The dramatic departure of Joe Biden throws fresh uncertainty into the US presidential election race.

US Rapid Response

Trump still favourite, as Biden withdraws

After his disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to be re-elected in this November’s election. His withdrawal letter acknowledges Vice President Kamala Harris...

21st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications

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Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.

Latin America Economics Update

Venezuela’s election: time for change?

The latest polls suggest that the opposition is on track to win Venezuela’s election later this month but President Maduro is likely to do all he can to cling on to power. If he manages to do so...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Treasury yield curve inversion nears its end?

We expect short-term US Treasury yields to keep falling more rapidly than long-term ones, eventually putting an end to more than two years of an inverted yield curve.

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Four key points on Trump & financial markets

Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key...

15th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France struggling (and not just at football)

France has made little progress towards forming a new government since the second round of the elections last Sunday. But when a new administration is eventually formed, it will struggle to agree a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

We still think the euro will fare well against the pound

In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read