Asset Allocation Update

What Taiwan’s election could mean for markets

This Update discusses how we think Taiwan’s election this weekend – which could be another flashpoint in Taiwan-China relations – might affect global equity markets, in aggregate and across some key...

12th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Update

What happens after Taiwan's election?

China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan with stepped-up military drills. But any economic sanctions would almost certainly be...

10th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

BoK meeting, Philippines inflation, Asian elections

The Bank of Korea looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. But with inflation falling and concerns about the economy mounting, we expect the central bank to...

5th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

A guide to elections across Asia in 2024

In a busy electoral calendar, seven countries in Emerging Asia will go to the polls this year. The votes will have important implications for geopolitics (Taiwan), long-term economic reform prospects...

3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Asia Drop-In: Taiwan election 2024 – Domestic and global implications

1705309200

In a busy year for elections worldwide, Taiwan’s is likely to be among the most consequential.

Event

Drop-In: 2024 EM Outlook – Big growth divergence in a big election year

1704987000

The past 12 months have seen marked divergence in growth across emerging markets economies, as well as the start of easing cycles among some of their central banks.

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina deregulates, Brazil’s tax reform, rate cuts

The past week saw a flurry of pro-growth reforms that could boost long-term growth prospects in parts of the region. In Argentina, President Milei took a first big step towards reducing the role of...

22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt post-election policy shift? Saudi gigaproject delays

Inflation in Egypt slowed further in November but, with President al-Sisi all but certain to be confirmed as the winner of the recent election, policy moves over the coming weeks and months will...

14th December 2023 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Taiwan election: 3.5% growth target is unachievable

The front runner in Taiwan’s election, Lai Ching-te, is targeting economic growth of 3.5% if he wins the presidency. We think this will be out of reach. Although productivity growth should hold up...

13th December 2023 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: positive first steps but more therapy needed

The economic reform measures announced yesterday by Argentina’s Economy Minister Luis Caputo, including a large devaluation of the peso and fiscal tightening, mark a clear change in policymaking from...

13th December 2023 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook

The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that...

8th December 2023 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Do elections really matter for the economy?

The economic influence of elections is often overstated. They have only tended to have significant effects if governments have embarked on big structural reforms, interfered with monetary policy or...

7th December 2023 · 25 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s presidential election, Saudi budget approved

The result of Egypt’s presidential election that concludes next week is a formality, but once the vote is out of the way, it seems likely that economic policy will shift in a more orthodox direction...

7th December 2023 · 8 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising

As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates...

6th December 2023 · 16 mins read

India Economics Update

Three key points on the state election results

The latest batch of state election results suggests that support for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP remains firmly intact and that it is clearly in the driving seat to secure another victory in next year’s...

4th December 2023 · 3 mins read