UK Economics Weekly Low tax/low spending rhetoric is fiscal fiction It’s true that the Chancellor’s pre-election splurge unveiled in this week’s Autumn Statement was the biggest tax-cutting package since 1988. But the reality is that the tax burden is still set to... 24th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement – Pre-election splurge, post election squeeze The net giveaway the Chancellor announced in the Autumn Statement is designed to curry favour ahead of an election late in 2024. However, fiscal policy is still being tightened in 2024/25 and it looks... 22nd November 2023 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Autumn Fiscal Statement (22nd Nov. 2023) For more detailed analysis of the Autumn Statement, see our UK Economics Focus here. The net new giveaway the Chancellor announced today of £14.3bn in 2024/25 (0.5% of GDP) is a bit bigger than the... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global economy in 2024 – Key themes/core risks 1701763200 A team of our senior economists recently held a special online briefing all about the key economic themes which will shape 2024.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2023) October’s public finances figures won’t deter the Chancellor from embarking on a pre-election fiscal giveaway in his Autumn Statement on Wednesday. We think he will unveil a net fiscal giveaway... 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Milei’s win brings shock therapy onto the table Javier Milei’s victory in the final round of Argentina’s presidential election yesterday will bring about a major shift in economic policymaking. We suspect that some of his more radical proposals –... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s final presidential vote, Pemex woes The final round of Argentina’s presidential election between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa on Sunday offers starkly different paths for the economy – shock therapy or more of the current government’s... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2023 Preview - Short-term political gain worsens long-term fiscal pain With the government still languishing far behind in the opinion polls and an election required before the end of January 2025, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is under more pressure than ever to pull... 15th November 2023 · 20 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy disinflation; credit conditions still tight Despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, crude oil prices have slumped. The upshot is that headline CPI inflation, which rebounded from a low of 3.1% in June to 3.7% in September, should be back... 10th November 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly State elections, grain scheme extension, food inflation The extension of the free food grain scheme by another five years is clearly geared towards firming up support for the BJP ahead of state elections this month (as well as the general election next... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: Would an opposition win boost the economy? An opposition win in Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election could lead to a complete or partial reversal of the economic sanctions that China has imposed on Taiwan’s economy during Tsai Ing-wen’s... 9th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Massa vs. Milei, Colombia-China, Chile’s peso worries In Argentina, investors’ nerves have been calmed a little after Sergio Massa, the Peronist presidential candidate who came top in the first round vote, showed signs of moderation. But likely fiscal... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia election – what is at stake? Reforms introduced by President Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) should enable the economy to continue growing rapidly once he steps down next year. The key question as the election approaches... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal support coming in Israel, Tusk’s election win There remains significant uncertainty over how the Israel-Hamas war will evolve, but developments this week confirm that fiscal policy will be loosened as policymakers provide support to the military... 20th October 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Elections come into focus, RBI won’t relax yet Pre-election giveaways seem to have started in India and are likely to be ramped up further ahead of next year's general election. Although this could cause the Finance Ministry to narrowly miss its... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Optimism on inflation, fiscal challenges for next government Although we still think that the UK’s inflation problem will dissipate slowly rather than suddenly and the situation in the Middle East poses an upside risk to our inflation forecasts, leading... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
