Event Drop-In: 2024 EM Outlook – Big growth divergence in a big election year 11th January 2024, 3:30PM GMT The past 12 months have seen marked divergence in growth across emerging markets economies, as well as the start of easing cycles among some of their central banks. How much will these trends…
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deregulates, Brazil’s tax reform, rate cuts The past week saw a flurry of pro-growth reforms that could boost long-term growth prospects in parts of the region. In Argentina, President Milei took a first big step towards reducing the role of... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt post-election policy shift? Saudi gigaproject delays Inflation in Egypt slowed further in November but, with President al-Sisi all but certain to be confirmed as the winner of the recent election, policy moves over the coming weeks and months will... 14th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan election: 3.5% growth target is unachievable The front runner in Taiwan’s election, Lai Ching-te, is targeting economic growth of 3.5% if he wins the presidency. We think this will be out of reach. Although productivity growth should hold up... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: positive first steps but more therapy needed The economic reform measures announced yesterday by Argentina’s Economy Minister Luis Caputo, including a large devaluation of the peso and fiscal tightening, mark a clear change in policymaking from... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that... 8th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Do elections really matter for the economy? The economic influence of elections is often overstated. They have only tended to have significant effects if governments have embarked on big structural reforms, interfered with monetary policy or... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s presidential election, Saudi budget approved The result of Egypt’s presidential election that concludes next week is a formality, but once the vote is out of the way, it seems likely that economic policy will shift in a more orthodox direction... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economic Outlook Despite soft landing, inflation rapidly normalising As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 6th December 2023 · 16 mins read
India Economics Update Three key points on the state election results The latest batch of state election results suggests that support for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP remains firmly intact and that it is clearly in the driving seat to secure another victory in next year’s... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut? The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2024 Next year is one of the busiest ever in the EM electoral calendar, with votes taking place in countries accounting for over a third of EM GDP. The upcoming votes will have important implications for... 29th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A silver lining in Argentina Argentina’s financial markets welcomed Javier Milei’s victory in the presidential election last Sunday and, in particular, signs that he will pursue a form of shock therapy stripped of some of more... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Low tax/low spending rhetoric is fiscal fiction It’s true that the Chancellor’s pre-election splurge unveiled in this week’s Autumn Statement was the biggest tax-cutting package since 1988. But the reality is that the tax burden is still set to... 24th November 2023 · 4 mins read
