Event EM Drop-In: Russia election 2024 – War, sanctions and commodities 12th March 2024, 3:00PM GMT The outcome of Russia’s presidential election is a forgone conclusion. But there are big questions about what will happen in Vladimir Putin’s fifth term to the course of the war in Ukraine, to Russia…
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finances figures delivered some much-needed good news for the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget on 6th March. But we doubt this will pave the way for a very big pre-election... 21st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Spring Budget 2024 – Jeremy Hunt goes shopping for votes 1709737200 The UK Chancellor may use his 6th March Spring Budget to splash the cash and try to win voter support for the beleaguered Conservative party ahead of an expected electi
Asia Economics Weekly BoK on hold, Malaysia Q4 GDP, election roundup The Bank of Korea looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Instead, the focus will be on the tone of the statement. We expect the central bank to start... 16th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A look ahead to South Africa’s Budget South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana faces an uphill task in next week’s Budget to convince investors that the government will be able to place the public finances on a sustainable footing... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus What does the election mean for the UK economy? The next general election won’t be as pivotal for the economy or the markets as the elections in 2017 and 2019. Moreover, whoever wins will be constrained by interest rates having risen relative to... 13th February 2024 · 31 mins read
US Economics Update Read my lips: No new tax cuts Speculation will inevitably build that a Donald Trump victory in this year’s presidential election would be followed, once again, by large-scale tax cuts. With the Federal budget outlook in a far... 12th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: election result bad news for the economy Pakistan’s general election has thrown the country’s political scene into turmoil, with no party emerging with a majority from Thursday’s poll. A hung parliament may complicate the country’s upcoming... 9th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging news on inflation, Indonesia elections The most recent batch of inflation figures for the region paint an encouraging picture. Headline inflation fell again in most countries last month and is now within target nearly everywhere. With... 9th February 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal splurge won’t prevent summer interest rate cut The IMF was not wrong when it pointed out this week that by offering pre-election tax cuts, the Chancellor is turning a blind eye to the precarious state of the fiscal position. To meet his fiscal... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: After Jokowi – Indonesia’s election and its long-term economic outlook 1707811200 Indonesians go to the polls on 14th February to elect a successor to Joko Widodo, the president popularly known as Jokowi, who pushed through some key reforms to secure the country’s
US Economics Focus Trump's new tariffs would accelerate global fracturing If he wins this year’s presidential election, Donald Trump’s plans for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China specifically would subtract up to 1.5% from... 31st January 2024 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal Headroom Monitor: More room for tax cuts Our new Fiscal Headroom Monitor uses a simplified version of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s model to estimate how changes in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields are influencing... 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2023) December’s better-than-expected public finances figures brought some cheer for the Chancellor after the recent run of poor outturns and will give him a bit more wiggle room for a big pre-election... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
