China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the outlier In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record immigration won’t make the Bank’s job easier The accepted wisdom is that strong immigration reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, as it will eventually help to ease labour shortages. But the immediate impact has... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s mobilisation, external conditions tighten President Putin's "partial mobilisation" of Russian military reservists this week as part of its ongoing war with Ukraine could have important macro implications for Russia's economy through... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Can the government hit a new 2.5% growth target? In his mini-Budget slated for next Friday, the new Chancellor reportedly intends to set an official target of raising real GDP growth to 2.5% a year. But with productivity growth and labour force... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus When will tourism recover from the pandemic? The post-pandemic recovery in travel and tourism still has some way to go in parts of the world that have been slower to lift restrictions, such as in Asia. And China’s reluctance to move away from... 15th September 2022 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2022) While the first rise in Australia’s unemployment rate since last year’s Delta lockdown should be followed by a renewed fall, it will encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to slow the pace of... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Rebuilding Ukraine: how much, who pays, what’s next? The war in Ukraine is dragging on, but there is now growing attention on the country’s eventual reconstruction. We think the government’s target of $750bn of total funding is unlikely to be met ($300... 19th August 2022 · 23 mins read
Long Run Update Composition of spending will change as populations age The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries... 1st August 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Which countries can offer lessons for ageing populations? Ageing populations will be one of the main structural challenges facing many economies over the coming decades. Ahead of a series of work analysing what can be learned from countries ageing rapidly... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update UN forecasts confirm broad demographic headwinds The UN’s latest population projections highlight that demographic headwinds are set to mount in almost all economies outside Africa. The most significant downward revisions were to its forecasts for... 13th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Are the demographic headwinds strengthening? A falling fertility rate and declining employment among retirement age workers pose downside risks to our long-term forecasts for Japan’s labour force and GDP growth. However, with the female... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis The main long-run economic impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis will be to boost the workforce of countries where the migrants settle, partially offsetting the unfavourable demographics that many of... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Ageing a bigger threat than pandemic to public debt We expect governments in advanced economies to take action to prevent public sector debt ratios from spiralling out of control as their populations age. However, this is uncertain, and the risk is... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in China in 2022 2022 will be a year of slower growth in China as the property and export sectors weaken and structural constraints loom larger. A desire to keep a grip on credit risks will inhibit the policy response... 5th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update The implications of the pandemic decline in births Birth rates have fallen in several advanced economies during the pandemic. Although we think that fertility rates will bounce back and there won’t be material long-term impacts, this presents a small... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
