Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Public finances now a growing concern in parts of CEE The larger-than-expected 2023 budget deficit figures released across parts of Central Europe this week underline our concerns about the fiscal challenges facing the region. The need for fiscal... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update The economic effects of the drought in southern Africa El Niño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia clears debt hurdle, CBN stepping up Zambia secured an debt restructuring deal with private bondholders this week. It looks like it has the seal of approval from official creditors, paving the way for the country to finally exit default... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment. But tight fiscal and monetary policy will constrain the recovery and our GDP... 28th March 2024 · 0 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM dollar bond yields could fall We think Emerging Market (EM) dollar bond yields will fall in general by the end of this year, thanks both to lower US Treasury yields and, in some cases, narrower spreads. But the sovereign dollar... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving... 15th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Debt for another day Households are offsetting the impact of high interest rates by paying down less of their debt. While that has helped the economy to avoid recession, it also suggests there will be less of a boost from... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Eurobond, SA banks and SDR increase The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will... 13th March 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2024) Aggregate EM growth softened towards the end of last year and we think it will remain weak in 2024. But there will be divergence at the country level with growth slowing in those economies that... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and... 28th February 2024 · 0 mins read
