Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: a close look at external financing and debt relief The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weak growth to make fiscal challenge harder The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to... 20th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the... 18th June 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s EVs to fuel auto boom, Aramco issuance The EU’s tariffs on EV imports from China may encourage Chinese firms to raise investments into Morocco, whose auto sector is growing rapidly on the back of expansion plans from both Chinese and... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update France rating downgrade won’t be the last With the government debt-to-GDP ratio likely to trend up over the medium term, and the budget deficit set to stay above 3% of GDP, we suspect that France will be subject to further rating downgrades... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks... 30th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence... 23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s overseas lending push has stalled Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global... 16th May 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections and inflation target, Angola debt Electioneering in South Africa heated up this week as parties openly warned of the different scenarios that could emerge after this month’s polls. The scenario that is most worrying remains a left... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Pemex problem, Copom’s politicisation Comments from Mexican officials this week that the government could take some of Pemex’s debts onto its own balance sheet would ease the firm's default risks. But it would come at the expense of a... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
