Africa Economics Weekly Market turmoil and Africa, Uganda and Kenya rate cuts Idiosyncratic factors seemed to play a bigger role than the recent global financial market turmoil in driving African markets this week. But while the fall in oil prices may be overdone, African... 9th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SSA protests will worsen public finance strains Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria ways & means, Ethiopia devaluation, SA PMI Nigeria’s government increased the limit of its Ways and Means facility this week, raising concerns that officials are resorting to their bad old ways of deficit monetisation. If tapped persistently... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities 1723125600 How has the level of financial risk evolved among emerging markets over the past three months?
Latin America Economics Update Will Argentina lift capital controls? The Argentine peso’s overvaluation is becoming an increasing point of concern and attention has shifted to whether the Milei administration will lift capital controls. We think that some form of... 31st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil using sticking plasters as public finances worsen The recent sharp deterioration in Brazil’s public finances has forced Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to outline further fiscal tightening measures, but we doubt that the government will do enough to... 23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal rules: there to be broken? A growing number of EMs have adopted fiscal rules to improve investor confidence in the management of their public finances. But the recent deterioration in fiscal health in some EMs has led to the... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”... 23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France struggling (and not just at football) France has made little progress towards forming a new government since the second round of the elections last Sunday. But when a new administration is eventually formed, it will struggle to agree a... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
