Europe Economics Weekly ECB to keep cutting; bond vigilantes returning? The continued strength of services inflation means ECB policymakers will feel in no hurry to slash interest rates, but we still think the deposit rate will fall from 3.0% currently to 1.5% in Q3... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets... 9th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s market meltdown Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No economic bazooka in German election manifestos The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general... 20th December 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise? Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: are financial stability risks starting to crystallise? Risks to Russia’s macroeconomic stability are mounting on the back of the recent credit boom and sharp rise in interest rates. Our EM financial risk indicators show that Russia is now at high risk of... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil succumb to fiscal dominance? The Brazilian central bank’s aggressive interest rate hike yesterday may help ease concerns that fiscal dominance will take hold. But we think that measures to keep government debt servicing costs... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French budget deadlock to continue Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth, inflation and fiscal policy Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of... 29th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: fiscal missteps add to upside risks to Selic rate The fiscal tightening measures announced by Brazil’s finance minister late yesterday failed to live up to expectations and reinforce the idea that political commitment to stabilising the public... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
