Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the... 11th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update IMF endorses Milei’s plans but hurdles ahead The IMF’s approval of the next disbursement of Argentina’s current deal will provide the government with the necessary funds to make upcoming repayments (due to the Fund itself). And the fact that the... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF deal, Chile’s recovery, Nafta turns 30 President Milei's stabilisation plan for Argentina's economy makes it more likely that the IMF will agree to relax the current programme criteria when officials from both sides meet later today. But... 5th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia IMF deal, Angola leaves OPEC, DRC elections Zambia’s continued progress with fiscal consolidation is paying dividends. It unlocked the latest tranche of its IMF deal this week and its compliance with the Fund’s targets may help to progress debt... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico... 20th December 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Costa resignation won’t reverse Portugal debt progress The end of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa’s time in office does not signify the end of Portugal’s impressive period of debt reduction. We think any future government is likely to exercise... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Debt burdens will constrain fiscal policy for years The goal of keeping government debt ratios stable or falling means that many euro-zone countries will need to tighten fiscal policy substantially and some will need to run primary budget surpluses for... 19th December 2023 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: first step towards defusing the ‘Leliq bomb’ At face value, the Argentine central bank’s (BCRA’s) decision yesterday to switch (and essentially lower) its policy rate seems at odds with the goal of tackling the country’s severe inflation problem... 19th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 18th December 2023 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia default, SA activity, Ghana inflation fall Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: positive first steps but more therapy needed The economic reform measures announced yesterday by Argentina’s Economy Minister Luis Caputo, including a large devaluation of the peso and fiscal tightening, mark a clear change in policymaking from... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Another year of sluggish growth Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid... 13th December 2023 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising arrears not translating into forced sales The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Debt woes widely known but far from priced in Moody’s downgrade to China’s rating outlook received a muted response in markets. That’s partly because the country’s economic challenges are already widely known. But the bigger picture is that... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
